China Automotive Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CAAS
 Stock
  

USD 7.22  0.12  1.69%   

China Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast China Automotive historical stock prices and determine the direction of China Automotive Systems's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of China Automotive historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although China Automotive naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of China Automotive Systems systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of China Automotive fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Automotive to cross-verify your projections.
  
China Automotive PPandE Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. China Automotive reported last year PPandE Turnover of 3.74. As of 12/02/2022, Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to 5.51, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 1.93. . As of 12/02/2022, Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop to about 28.9 M. In addition to that, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to drop to about 29.2 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 China Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast China Automotive's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest China Automotive's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies China Automotive stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current China Automotive's open interest, investors have to compare it to China Automotive's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of China Automotive is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in China. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in China Automotive cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the China Automotive's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets China Automotive's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for China Automotive is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of China Automotive Systems value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

China Automotive Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of China Automotive Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 8.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.034021, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

China Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest China AutomotiveChina Automotive Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

China Automotive Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting China Automotive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Automotive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.25 and 12.89, respectively. We have considered China Automotive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 7.22
8.07
Expected Value
12.89
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.7297
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1385
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0301
SAESum of the absolute errors8.4461
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of China Automotive Systems. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict China Automotive. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for China Automotive

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Automotive Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of China Automotive in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
2.577.3912.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.416.2311.05
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
7.007.007.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.260.260.26
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Automotive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Automotive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Automotive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in China Automotive Systems.

Other Forecasting Options for China Automotive

For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Automotive's price trends.

China Automotive Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Automotive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Automotive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Automotive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Anheuser-Busch InBev SANVLinde PLCAnheuser Busch InbevEtsy IncThe Travelers CompaniesWalmartGeneral ElectricAmerican ExpressAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health Trend
 Risk & Return  Correlation

China Automotive Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of China Automotive's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of China Automotive's current price.

China Automotive Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Automotive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Automotive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify China Automotive Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

China Automotive Risk Indicators

The analysis of China Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting China Automotive stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

China Automotive Investors Sentiment

The influence of China Automotive's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in China. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to China Automotive's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in China. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding China can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around China Automotive Systems. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
China Automotive's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for China Automotive's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average China Automotive's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on China Automotive.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards China Automotive in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, China Automotive's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from China Automotive options trading.

Pair Trading with China Automotive

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if China Automotive position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in China Automotive will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against China Automotive

-0.61IRBTIRobot Normal TradingPairCorr
-0.56PRTYParty City Holdco Aggressive PushPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to China Automotive could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace China Automotive when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back China Automotive - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling China Automotive Systems to buy it.
The correlation of China Automotive is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as China Automotive moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if China Automotive Systems moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for China Automotive can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Automotive to cross-verify your projections. Note that the China Automotive Systems information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other China Automotive's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

Complementary Tools for China Stock analysis

When running China Automotive Systems price analysis, check to measure China Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of China Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is China Automotive's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of China Automotive. If investors know China will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about China Automotive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
2.06
Market Capitalization
218 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.27
Return On Assets
0.0106
Return On Equity
0.0712
The market value of China Automotive Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of China that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of China Automotive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is China Automotive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because China Automotive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect China Automotive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between China Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine China Automotive value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, China Automotive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.