Citigroup Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

C
 Stock
  

USD 43.40  0.81  1.90%   

Citigroup Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Citigroup historical stock prices and determine the direction of Citigroup's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Citigroup historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citigroup to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-09-30 Citigroup Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Citigroup's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Citigroup's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Citigroup stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Citigroup's open interest, investors have to compare it to Citigroup's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Citigroup is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Citigroup. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Citigroup cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Citigroup's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Citigroup's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Citigroup is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Citigroup Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Citigroup on the next trading day is expected to be 43.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.94.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Citigroup Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Citigroup's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Citigroup Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CitigroupCitigroup Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Citigroup Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Citigroup's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Citigroup's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.10 and 45.70, respectively. We have considered Citigroup's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 43.40
43.40
Expected Value
45.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Citigroup stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Citigroup stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.8499
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0831
MADMean absolute deviation0.8804
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0179
SAESum of the absolute errors51.945
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Citigroup price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Citigroup. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Citigroup

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citigroup. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Citigroup's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Citigroup in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
41.1443.4645.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
39.0653.6956.01
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
43.0047.9052.80
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
66.0082.00120.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Citigroup. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Citigroup's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Citigroup's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Citigroup.

Other Forecasting Options for Citigroup

For every potential investor in Citigroup, whether a beginner or expert, Citigroup's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Citigroup Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Citigroup. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Citigroup's price trends.

Citigroup Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Citigroup stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Citigroup could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Citigroup by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Citigroup Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Citigroup's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Citigroup's current price.

Citigroup Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Citigroup stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Citigroup shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Citigroup stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Citigroup entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Citigroup Risk Indicators

The analysis of Citigroup's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Citigroup's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Citigroup stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Citigroup Implied Volatility

    
  65.41  
Citigroup's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Citigroup stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Citigroup's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Citigroup stock will not fluctuate a lot when Citigroup's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Citigroup in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Citigroup's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Citigroup options trading.

Pair Trading with Citigroup

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Citigroup position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Citigroup will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Citigroup

+0.74JPMJP Morgan Chase Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
+0.8WFCWells Fargo Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
+0.66HPQHp Inc Fiscal Year End 22nd of November 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Citigroup could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Citigroup when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Citigroup - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Citigroup to buy it.
The correlation of Citigroup is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Citigroup moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Citigroup moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Citigroup can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citigroup to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Citigroup information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Citigroup's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

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Is Citigroup's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Citigroup. If investors know Citigroup will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Citigroup listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Citigroup is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Citigroup that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Citigroup's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Citigroup's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Citigroup's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Citigroup's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Citigroup's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Citigroup value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Citigroup's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.