Bitcoin Crypto Coin Forecast - Simple Moving Average

BTC
 Crypto
  

USD 16,835  2.69  0.016%   

Bitcoin Crypto Coin Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bitcoin historical crypto prices and determine the direction of Bitcoin's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Bitcoin historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bitcoin to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Bitcoin cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bitcoin's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bitcoin's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Bitcoin is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Bitcoin Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Bitcoin on the next trading day is expected to be 16,835 with a mean absolute deviation of 418.07, mean absolute percentage error of 588,794, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24,666.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bitcoin Crypto Coin prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bitcoin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bitcoin Crypto Coin Forecast Pattern

Bitcoin Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bitcoin's Crypto Coin value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bitcoin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16,832 and 16,839, respectively. We have considered Bitcoin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 16,835
16,832
Downside
16,835
Expected Value
16,839
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bitcoin crypto coin data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bitcoin crypto coin, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.7206
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 80.8071
MADMean absolute deviation418.0688
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0228
SAESum of the absolute errors24666.06
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Bitcoin price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Bitcoin. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Bitcoin

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bitcoin. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bitcoin's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Bitcoin in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
16,79516,79818,519
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14,85514,85918,519
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
15,83916,82317,808
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bitcoin. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bitcoin's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bitcoin's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Bitcoin.

Other Forecasting Options for Bitcoin

For every potential investor in Bitcoin, whether a beginner or expert, Bitcoin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bitcoin Crypto Coin price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bitcoin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bitcoin's price trends.

Bitcoin Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bitcoin crypto coin to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bitcoin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bitcoin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
DogecoinLitecoinMoneroEthereum ClassicBitcoin CashBitcoin SVArweaveZCashIOTABitcoin GoldCreditcoinAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQ
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bitcoin Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bitcoin's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bitcoin's current price.

Bitcoin Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bitcoin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bitcoin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Bitcoin stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Bitcoin Investors Sentiment

The influence of Bitcoin's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Bitcoin. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a crypto movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire crypto markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Bitcoin's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Bitcoin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bitcoin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bitcoin. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Bitcoin's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Bitcoin's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Bitcoin's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Bitcoin.
Some cryptocurrency investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. However, unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bitcoin in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the crypto's market sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools provided by cryptocurrency exchanges to gauge market sentiment could be utilized to time the market in a somewhat predictable way.

Pair Trading with Bitcoin

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bitcoin position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bitcoin will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Bitcoin

+0.81XMRMoneroPairCorr
+0.73ETCEthereum ClassicPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bitcoin could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bitcoin when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bitcoin - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bitcoin to buy it.
The correlation of Bitcoin is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bitcoin moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bitcoin moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bitcoin can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bitcoin to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.

Other Tools for Bitcoin Crypto Coin

When running Bitcoin price analysis, check to measure Bitcoin's coin volatility and technical momentum indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bitcoin is operating at the current time. Most of Bitcoin's value examination focuses on studying past and present price actions to predict the probability of Bitcoin's future price movements. You can analyze the coin against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bitcoin's coin price. Additionally, you may evaluate how adding Bitcoin to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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