Bitcoin Crypto Coin Forecast - Naive Prediction

BTC
 Crypto
  

USD 16,452  56.80  0.34%   

Bitcoin Crypto Coin Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bitcoin historical crypto prices and determine the direction of Bitcoin's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Bitcoin historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bitcoin to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Bitcoin cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bitcoin's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bitcoin's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Bitcoin is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bitcoin value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Bitcoin Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bitcoin on the next trading day is expected to be 17,602 with a mean absolute deviation of 589.45, mean absolute percentage error of 614,948, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35,956.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bitcoin Crypto Coin prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bitcoin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bitcoin Crypto Coin Forecast Pattern

Bitcoin Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bitcoin's Crypto Coin value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bitcoin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17,598 and 17,606, respectively. We have considered Bitcoin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 16,452
17,598
Downside
17,602
Expected Value
17,606
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bitcoin crypto coin data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bitcoin crypto coin, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria131.4398
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation589.446
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.031
SAESum of the absolute errors35956.2031
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Bitcoin. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Bitcoin. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Bitcoin

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bitcoin. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bitcoin's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Bitcoin in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
16,48016,48418,159
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14,79414,79818,159
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
16,52016,97917,438
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bitcoin. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bitcoin's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bitcoin's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Bitcoin.

Other Forecasting Options for Bitcoin

For every potential investor in Bitcoin, whether a beginner or expert, Bitcoin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bitcoin Crypto Coin price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bitcoin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bitcoin's price trends.

Bitcoin Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bitcoin crypto coin to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bitcoin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bitcoin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
DogecoinLitecoinEthereum ClassicMoneroBitcoin CashBitcoin SVArweaveIOTAZCashCreditcoinBitcoin GoldAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 Covered
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bitcoin Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bitcoin's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bitcoin's current price.

Bitcoin Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bitcoin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bitcoin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Bitcoin stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Bitcoin without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Bitcoin

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bitcoin position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bitcoin will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Bitcoin

+0.66ETCEthereum ClassicPairCorr
+0.89XMRMoneroPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bitcoin could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bitcoin when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bitcoin - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bitcoin to buy it.
The correlation of Bitcoin is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bitcoin moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bitcoin moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bitcoin can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bitcoin to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

Other Tools for Bitcoin Crypto Coin

When running Bitcoin price analysis, check to measure Bitcoin's coin volatility and technical momentum indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bitcoin is operating at the current time. Most of Bitcoin's value examination focuses on studying past and present price actions to predict the probability of Bitcoin's future price movements. You can analyze the coin against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bitcoin's coin price. Additionally, you may evaluate how adding Bitcoin to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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