Boqii HoldingLtd Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

BQ
 Stock
  

USD 1.35  0.14  9.40%   

Boqii Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Boqii HoldingLtd historical stock prices and determine the direction of Boqii HoldingLtd's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Boqii HoldingLtd historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Boqii HoldingLtd to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2023-01-20 Boqii Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Boqii HoldingLtd's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Boqii HoldingLtd's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Boqii HoldingLtd stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
No Open Interest
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Boqii HoldingLtd's open interest, investors have to compare it to Boqii HoldingLtd's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Boqii HoldingLtd is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Boqii. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Boqii HoldingLtd cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Boqii HoldingLtd's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Boqii HoldingLtd's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Boqii HoldingLtd - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Boqii HoldingLtd prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Boqii HoldingLtd price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Boqii HoldingLtd.

Boqii HoldingLtd Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Boqii HoldingLtd on the next trading day is expected to be 1.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.045333, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0037, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Boqii Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Boqii HoldingLtd's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Boqii HoldingLtd Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Boqii HoldingLtdBoqii HoldingLtd Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Boqii HoldingLtd Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Boqii HoldingLtd's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Boqii HoldingLtd's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0135 and 5.88, respectively. We have considered Boqii HoldingLtd's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 1.35
0.0135
Downside
1.34
Expected Value
5.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Boqii HoldingLtd stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Boqii HoldingLtd stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0087
MADMean absolute deviation0.0453
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0363
SAESum of the absolute errors2.72
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Boqii HoldingLtd observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Boqii HoldingLtd observations.

Predictive Modules for Boqii HoldingLtd

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Boqii HoldingLtd. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Boqii HoldingLtd's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Boqii HoldingLtd in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.071.496.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.091.796.34
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
1.001.201.40
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
3.003.003.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Boqii HoldingLtd. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Boqii HoldingLtd's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Boqii HoldingLtd's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Boqii HoldingLtd.

Other Forecasting Options for Boqii HoldingLtd

For every potential investor in Boqii, whether a beginner or expert, Boqii HoldingLtd's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Boqii Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Boqii. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Boqii HoldingLtd's price trends.

Boqii HoldingLtd Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Boqii HoldingLtd stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Boqii HoldingLtd could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Boqii HoldingLtd by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
IntelAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USAAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil CorpSignature Bank
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Boqii HoldingLtd Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Boqii HoldingLtd's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Boqii HoldingLtd's current price.

Boqii HoldingLtd Risk Indicators

The analysis of Boqii HoldingLtd's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Boqii HoldingLtd's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Boqii HoldingLtd stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Boqii HoldingLtd without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Boqii HoldingLtd

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Boqii HoldingLtd position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Boqii HoldingLtd will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Boqii HoldingLtd

+0.74WOOFPet Acquisition LLC Upward RallyPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Boqii HoldingLtd could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Boqii HoldingLtd when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Boqii HoldingLtd - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Boqii HoldingLtd to buy it.
The correlation of Boqii HoldingLtd is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Boqii HoldingLtd moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Boqii HoldingLtd moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Boqii HoldingLtd can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Boqii HoldingLtd to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.

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Is Boqii HoldingLtd's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Boqii HoldingLtd. If investors know Boqii will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Boqii HoldingLtd listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
20.6 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.021) 
Return On Assets
(0.08) 
Return On Equity
(0.52) 
The market value of Boqii HoldingLtd is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Boqii that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Boqii HoldingLtd's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Boqii HoldingLtd's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Boqii HoldingLtd's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Boqii HoldingLtd's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Boqii HoldingLtd's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Boqii HoldingLtd value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Boqii HoldingLtd's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.