Boqii Holding Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

BQ
 Stock
  

USD 1.31  0.01  0.76%   

Boqii Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Boqii Holding historical stock prices and determine the direction of Boqii Holding's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Boqii Holding historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Boqii Holding to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Boqii Holding cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Boqii Holding's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Boqii Holding's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Boqii Holding simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Boqii Holding are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Boqii Holding prices get older.

Boqii Holding Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Boqii Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 1.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.041475, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00312, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.53.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Boqii Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Boqii Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Boqii Holding Stock Forecast Pattern

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Boqii Holding Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Boqii Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Boqii Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0131 and 5.64, respectively. We have considered Boqii Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 1.31
0.0131
Downside
1.31
Expected Value
5.64
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Boqii Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Boqii Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.3405
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0057
MADMean absolute deviation0.0415
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0333
SAESum of the absolute errors2.53
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Boqii Holding forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Boqii Holding observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Boqii Holding

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Boqii Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Boqii Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Boqii Holding in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.071.335.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.081.686.01
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
3.003.003.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.35-0.35-0.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Boqii Holding. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Boqii Holding's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Boqii Holding's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Boqii Holding.

Other Forecasting Options for Boqii Holding

For every potential investor in Boqii, whether a beginner or expert, Boqii Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Boqii Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Boqii. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Boqii Holding's price trends.

Boqii Holding Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Boqii Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Boqii Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Boqii Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Ulta BeautyDAIMLER AGBest BuyTractor SupplyGenuine PartsAutozoneOReilly AutomotiveAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value Factor
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Boqii Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Boqii Holding's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Boqii Holding's current price.

Boqii Holding Risk Indicators

The analysis of Boqii Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Boqii Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Boqii Holding stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Boqii Holding without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Boqii Holding

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Boqii Holding position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Boqii Holding will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Boqii Holding

-0.69SGMLSigma Lithium Corp Sell-off TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Boqii Holding could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Boqii Holding when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Boqii Holding - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Boqii Holding to buy it.
The correlation of Boqii Holding is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Boqii Holding moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Boqii Holding moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Boqii Holding can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Boqii Holding to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

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Is Boqii Holding's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Boqii Holding. If investors know Boqii will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Boqii Holding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
20.2 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.021) 
Return On Assets
(0.08) 
Return On Equity
(0.52) 
The market value of Boqii Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Boqii that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Boqii Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Boqii Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Boqii Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Boqii Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Boqii Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Boqii Holding value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Boqii Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.