BNP Paribas OTC Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

BNPQF
 Stock
  

USD 54.40  1.08  1.95%   

BNPQF OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast BNP Paribas historical stock prices and determine the direction of BNP Paribas SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of BNP Paribas historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of BNP Paribas to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in BNP Paribas cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the BNP Paribas' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets BNP Paribas' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for BNP Paribas - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When BNP Paribas prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in BNP Paribas price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of BNP Paribas SA.

BNP Paribas Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BNP Paribas SA on the next trading day is expected to be 54.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84, mean absolute percentage error of 1.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.80.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BNPQF OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BNP Paribas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BNP Paribas OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest BNP ParibasBNP Paribas Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

BNP Paribas Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BNP Paribas' OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BNP Paribas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.22 and 57.13, respectively. We have considered BNP Paribas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 54.40
54.68
Expected Value
57.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BNP Paribas otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BNP Paribas otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0416
MADMean absolute deviation0.8441
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.018
SAESum of the absolute errors49.8027
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past BNP Paribas observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older BNP Paribas SA observations.

Predictive Modules for BNP Paribas

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BNP Paribas SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of BNP Paribas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of BNP Paribas in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
51.9654.4056.84
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
47.6150.0559.84
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
46.9952.4857.96
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BNP Paribas. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BNP Paribas' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BNP Paribas' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in BNP Paribas SA.

Other Forecasting Options for BNP Paribas

For every potential investor in BNPQF, whether a beginner or expert, BNP Paribas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BNPQF OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BNPQF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BNP Paribas' price trends.

BNP Paribas Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BNP Paribas otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BNP Paribas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BNP Paribas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Hong Kong ExchangesMSCI IncTMX Group LimitedMorningstarFactSet Research SystemsAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BNP Paribas SA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BNP Paribas' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BNP Paribas' current price.

BNP Paribas Risk Indicators

The analysis of BNP Paribas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BNP Paribas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting BNP Paribas stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

BNP Paribas Investors Sentiment

The influence of BNP Paribas' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in BNPQF. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a otc movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire otc markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to BNP Paribas' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in BNPQF. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding BNPQF can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around BNP Paribas SA. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
BNP Paribas' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for BNP Paribas' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average BNP Paribas' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on BNP Paribas.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards BNP Paribas in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, BNP Paribas' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from BNP Paribas options trading.

Pair Trading with BNP Paribas

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if BNP Paribas position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in BNP Paribas will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with BNP Paribas

+0.91LULULululemon Athletica Earnings Call This WeekPairCorr
+0.71MRKMerck Company Sell-off TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to BNP Paribas could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace BNP Paribas when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back BNP Paribas - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling BNP Paribas SA to buy it.
The correlation of BNP Paribas is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as BNP Paribas moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if BNP Paribas SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BNP Paribas can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of BNP Paribas to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

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When running BNP Paribas SA price analysis, check to measure BNP Paribas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BNP Paribas is operating at the current time. Most of BNP Paribas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BNP Paribas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BNP Paribas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BNP Paribas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between BNP Paribas' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine BNP Paribas value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BNP Paribas' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.