Bellus Health Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

BLU
 Stock
  

USD 10.29  0.06  0.59%   

Bellus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bellus Health historical stock prices and determine the direction of Bellus Health's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Bellus Health historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bellus Health to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Bellus Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bellus Health's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Bellus Health's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Bellus Health stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bellus Health's open interest, investors have to compare it to Bellus Health's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bellus Health is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bellus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Bellus Health cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bellus Health's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bellus Health's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Bellus Health price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Bellus Health Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Bellus Health on the next trading day is expected to be 11.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68, mean absolute percentage error of 0.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bellus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bellus Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bellus Health Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bellus HealthBellus Health Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Bellus Health Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bellus Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bellus Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.27 and 15.81, respectively. We have considered Bellus Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 10.29
11.54
Expected Value
15.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bellus Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bellus Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5919
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6799
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0645
SAESum of the absolute errors41.4754
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Bellus Health historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Bellus Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bellus Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bellus Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Bellus Health in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
5.9210.2714.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
7.6812.0316.38
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
10.2511.2011.67
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
7.5013.6920.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bellus Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bellus Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bellus Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Bellus Health.

Other Forecasting Options for Bellus Health

For every potential investor in Bellus, whether a beginner or expert, Bellus Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bellus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bellus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bellus Health's price trends.

Bellus Health Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bellus Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bellus Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bellus Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Clearwater Paper CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bellus Health Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bellus Health's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bellus Health's current price.

Bellus Health Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bellus Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bellus Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bellus Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bellus Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bellus Health Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bellus Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bellus Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Bellus Health stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bellus Health in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Bellus Health's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Bellus Health options trading.

Pair Trading with Bellus Health

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bellus Health position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bellus Health will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Bellus Health

+0.78DISWalt Disney Fiscal Year End 9th of November 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bellus Health could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bellus Health when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bellus Health - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bellus Health to buy it.
The correlation of Bellus Health is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bellus Health moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bellus Health moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bellus Health can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bellus Health to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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Is Bellus Health's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bellus Health. If investors know Bellus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bellus Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Bellus Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bellus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bellus Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bellus Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bellus Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bellus Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bellus Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Bellus Health value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bellus Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.