BankUnited Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

BKU
 Stock
  

USD 35.07  0.08  0.23%   

BankUnited Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast BankUnited historical stock prices and determine the direction of BankUnited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of BankUnited historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although BankUnited naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of BankUnited systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of BankUnited fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of BankUnited to cross-verify your projections.
  
Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.0463 in 2022, whereas Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to drop 3.06 in 2022. . BankUnited Weighted Average Shares is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. BankUnited reported Weighted Average Shares of 90.4 Million in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to gain to about 104.4 M in 2022, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (326.9 M) in 2022.
Most investors in BankUnited cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the BankUnited's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets BankUnited's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for BankUnited works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

BankUnited Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BankUnited on the next trading day is expected to be 35.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 0.81, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.63.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BankUnited Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BankUnited's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BankUnited Stock Forecast Pattern

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BankUnited Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BankUnited's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BankUnited's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.65 and 37.40, respectively. We have considered BankUnited's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 35.07
35.02
Expected Value
37.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BankUnited stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BankUnited stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1496
MADMean absolute deviation0.6886
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0192
SAESum of the absolute errors40.6264
When BankUnited prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any BankUnited trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent BankUnited observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for BankUnited

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BankUnited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of BankUnited's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of BankUnited in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
32.1334.5136.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
31.0841.3243.70
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
33.7336.1038.47
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
41.5047.3053.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BankUnited. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BankUnited's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BankUnited's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in BankUnited.

Other Forecasting Options for BankUnited

For every potential investor in BankUnited, whether a beginner or expert, BankUnited's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BankUnited Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BankUnited. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BankUnited's price trends.

BankUnited Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BankUnited stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BankUnited could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BankUnited by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Continental AG PKBayerische Motoren WerkeToyota Motor CorpSuzuki Motor CorpToyota MotorContinental AktiengesellschaAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian Gold
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BankUnited Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BankUnited's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BankUnited's current price.

BankUnited Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BankUnited stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BankUnited shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BankUnited stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BankUnited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

BankUnited Risk Indicators

The analysis of BankUnited's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BankUnited's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting BankUnited stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards BankUnited in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, BankUnited's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from BankUnited options trading.

Pair Trading with BankUnited

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if BankUnited position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in BankUnited will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to BankUnited could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace BankUnited when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back BankUnited - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling BankUnited to buy it.
The correlation of BankUnited is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as BankUnited moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if BankUnited moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BankUnited can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of BankUnited to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running BankUnited price analysis, check to measure BankUnited's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BankUnited is operating at the current time. Most of BankUnited's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BankUnited's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BankUnited's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BankUnited to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is BankUnited's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BankUnited. If investors know BankUnited will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about BankUnited listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of BankUnited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of BankUnited that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of BankUnited's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is BankUnited's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because BankUnited's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect BankUnited's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between BankUnited's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine BankUnited value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BankUnited's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.