Black Knight Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

BKI
 Stock
  

USD 67.14  1.28  1.94%   

Black Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Black Knight historical stock prices and determine the direction of Black Knight's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Black Knight historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Black Knight naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Black Knight systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Black Knight fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Black Knight to cross-verify your projections.
  
Black Knight Accounts Payable Turnover is most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Accounts Payable Turnover was reported at 20.12. The current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 0.24, while Accrued Expenses Turnover is projected to decrease to 16.54. . The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 155.9 M, while Weighted Average Shares is projected to decrease to roughly 151.9 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Black Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Black Knight's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Black Knight's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Black Knight stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Black Knight's open interest, investors have to compare it to Black Knight's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Black Knight is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Black. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Black Knight cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Black Knight's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Black Knight's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Black Knight simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Black Knight are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Black Knight prices get older.

Black Knight Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Black Knight on the next trading day is expected to be 67.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76, mean absolute percentage error of 0.87, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Black Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Black Knight's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Black Knight Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Black KnightBlack Knight Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Black Knight Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Black Knight's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Black Knight's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 65.68 and 68.60, respectively. We have considered Black Knight's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 67.14
67.14
Expected Value
68.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Black Knight stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Black Knight stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.128
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0577
MADMean absolute deviation0.7617
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0116
SAESum of the absolute errors45.7
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Black Knight forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Black Knight observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Black Knight

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Black Knight. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Black Knight's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Black Knight in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
65.6867.1468.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
60.4381.1782.64
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
62.1565.0367.92
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
85.0095.20107.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Black Knight. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Black Knight's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Black Knight's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Black Knight.

Other Forecasting Options for Black Knight

For every potential investor in Black, whether a beginner or expert, Black Knight's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Black Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Black. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Black Knight's price trends.

Black Knight Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Black Knight stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Black Knight could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Black Knight by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Aci WorldwideAdobe SystemsAkamai TechnologiesAltair EngineeringAPPTECH CORPAppian Corp ClAvepoint Inc ClCouchbaseBlackberryBakkt HldgsAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 Covered
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Black Knight Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Black Knight's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Black Knight's current price.

Black Knight Risk Indicators

The analysis of Black Knight's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Black Knight's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Black Knight stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Black Knight Investors Sentiment

The influence of Black Knight's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Black. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Black Knight's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Black. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Black can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Black Knight. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Black Knight's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Black Knight's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Black Knight's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Black Knight.

Black Knight Implied Volatility

    
  85.4  
Black Knight's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Black Knight stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Black Knight's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Black Knight stock will not fluctuate a lot when Black Knight's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Black Knight in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Black Knight's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Black Knight options trading.

Pair Trading with Black Knight

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Black Knight position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Black Knight will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Black Knight

0.55CTLPCantalope Fiscal Year End 1st of September 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Black Knight could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Black Knight when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Black Knight - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Black Knight to buy it.
The correlation of Black Knight is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Black Knight moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Black Knight moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Black Knight can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Black Knight to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Black Knight information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Black Knight's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

Complementary Tools for Black Stock analysis

When running Black Knight price analysis, check to measure Black Knight's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Black Knight is operating at the current time. Most of Black Knight's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Black Knight's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Black Knight's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Black Knight to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Black Knight's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Black Knight. If investors know Black will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Black Knight listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.04
Market Capitalization
10.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.092
Return On Assets
0.0352
Return On Equity
0.17
The market value of Black Knight is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Black that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Black Knight's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Black Knight's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Black Knight's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Black Knight's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Black Knight's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Black Knight value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Black Knight's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.