Big Lots Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

BIG -  USA Stock  

USD 27.54  1.77  6.04%

Big Lots Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Big Lots historical stock prices and determine the direction of Big Lots's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Big Lots historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Big Lots naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Big Lots systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Big Lots fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Big Lots to cross-verify your projections.
  
Refresh
Big Lots Inventory Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Inventory Turnover was at 3.55. The current year Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to grow to 16.09, whereas Cash and Equivalents Turnover is forecasted to decline to 76.04. . Big Lots Weighted Average Shares Diluted is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares Diluted was at 55.55 Million.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-06-17 Big Lots Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Big Lots' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Big Lots' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Big Lots stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Big Lots' open interest, investors have to compare it to Big Lots' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Big Lots is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Big Lots. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Big Lots cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Big Lots' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Big Lots' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Big Lots polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Big Lots as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Big Lots Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Big Lots on the next trading day is expected to be 28.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41, mean absolute percentage error of 2.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.98. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Big Lots Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Big Lots' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Big Lots Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Big LotsBig Lots Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Big Lots Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Big Lots' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Big Lots' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.89 and 33.10, respectively. We have considered Big Lots' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 27.54
28.50
Expected Value
33.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Big Lots stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Big Lots stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.2054
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.4094
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0409
SAESum of the absolute errors85.9762
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Big Lots historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Big Lots

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Big Lots. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Big Lots' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Big Lots in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
22.5227.1231.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
24.7934.5739.17
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
27.2832.5237.76
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
37.0046.0054.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Big Lots. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Big Lots' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Big Lots' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Big Lots.

Other Forecasting Options for Big Lots

For every potential investor in Big Lots, whether a beginner or expert, Big Lots' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Big Lots Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Big Lots. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Big Lots' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Big Lots stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Big Lots could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Big Lots by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Big Lots Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Big Lots' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Big Lots' current price.

Big Lots Risk Indicators

The analysis of Big Lots' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Big Lots' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Big Lots stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Big Lots without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Portfolio Suggestion Now

   

Portfolio Suggestion

Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
All  Next Launch Module
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Big Lots to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Big Lots information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Big Lots' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

Complementary Tools for Big Lots Stock analysis

When running Big Lots price analysis, check to measure Big Lots' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Big Lots is operating at the current time. Most of Big Lots' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Big Lots' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Big Lots' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Big Lots to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
ETF Directory
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world
Go
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Go
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Go
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Go
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Go
CEO Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Go
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Go
Piotroski F Score
Get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals
Go
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Is Big Lots' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Big Lots. If investors know Big Lots will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Big Lots listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Big Lots is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Big Lots that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Big Lots' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Big Lots' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Big Lots' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Big Lots' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Big Lots' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Big Lots value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Big Lots' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.