Build-A-Bear Workshop Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BBW
 Stock
  

USD 15.94  0.48  2.92%   

Build-A-Bear Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Build-A-Bear Workshop historical stock prices and determine the direction of Build-A-Bear Workshop's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Build-A-Bear Workshop historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Build-A-Bear Workshop naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Build-A-Bear Workshop systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Build-A-Bear Workshop fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Build-A-Bear Workshop to cross-verify your projections.
  
Refresh
Build-A-Bear Workshop Inventory Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Build-A-Bear Workshop reported Inventory Turnover of 3.26 in 2021. Accrued Expenses Turnover is likely to climb to 28.49 in 2022, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 36.35 in 2022. . Build-A-Bear Workshop Weighted Average Shares is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Build-A-Bear Workshop reported Weighted Average Shares of 15.46 Million in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to climb to about 16.7 M in 2022, despite the fact that Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to grow to (2.4 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-15 Build-A-Bear Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Build-A-Bear Workshop's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Build-A-Bear Workshop's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Build-A-Bear Workshop stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Build-A-Bear Workshop's open interest, investors have to compare it to Build-A-Bear Workshop's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Build-A-Bear Workshop is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Build-A-Bear. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Build-A-Bear Workshop cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Build-A-Bear Workshop's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Build-A-Bear Workshop's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Build-A-Bear Workshop is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Build-A-Bear Workshop value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Build-A-Bear Workshop Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to Build-A-Bear Workshop's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Build-A-Bear. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Build-A-Bear can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Build-A-Bear Workshop. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Build-A-Bear Workshop's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Build-A-Bear Workshop's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Build-A-Bear Workshop's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Build-A-Bear Workshop.

Build-A-Bear Workshop Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Build-A-Bear Workshop on the next trading day is expected to be 15.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.13. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Build-A-Bear Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Build-A-Bear Workshop's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Build-A-Bear Workshop Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Build-A-Bear WorkshopBuild-A-Bear Workshop Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Build-A-Bear Workshop Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Build-A-Bear Workshop's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Build-A-Bear Workshop's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.69 and 20.18, respectively. We have considered Build-A-Bear Workshop's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 15.94
15.93
Expected Value
20.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Build-A-Bear Workshop stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Build-A-Bear Workshop stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7897
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6415
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0353
SAESum of the absolute errors39.129
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Build-A-Bear Workshop. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Build-A-Bear Workshop. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Build-A-Bear Workshop

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Build-A-Bear Workshop. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Build-A-Bear Workshop's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Build-A-Bear Workshop in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.7015.9520.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14.3520.4724.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
15.8718.2920.70
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
33.0033.0033.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Build-A-Bear Workshop. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Build-A-Bear Workshop's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Build-A-Bear Workshop's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Build-A-Bear Workshop.

Other Forecasting Options for Build-A-Bear Workshop

For every potential investor in Build-A-Bear, whether a beginner or expert, Build-A-Bear Workshop's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Build-A-Bear Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Build-A-Bear. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Build-A-Bear Workshop's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Build-A-Bear Workshop stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Build-A-Bear Workshop could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Build-A-Bear Workshop by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Build-A-Bear Workshop Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Build-A-Bear Workshop's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Build-A-Bear Workshop's current price.

Build-A-Bear Workshop Risk Indicators

The analysis of Build-A-Bear Workshop's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Build-A-Bear Workshop's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Build-A-Bear Workshop stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Build-A-Bear Workshop without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Correlation Analysis Now

   

Correlation Analysis

Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
All  Next Launch Module

Pair Trading with Build-A-Bear Workshop

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Build-A-Bear Workshop position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Build-A-Bear Workshop will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Build-A-Bear Workshop Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Build-A-Bear Workshop could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Build-A-Bear Workshop when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Build-A-Bear Workshop - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Build-A-Bear Workshop to buy it.
The correlation of Build-A-Bear Workshop is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Build-A-Bear Workshop moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Build-A-Bear Workshop moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Build-A-Bear Workshop can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Build-A-Bear Workshop to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Build-A-Bear Workshop information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Build-A-Bear Workshop's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Commodity Channel Index module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

Complementary Tools for Build-A-Bear Stock analysis

When running Build-A-Bear Workshop price analysis, check to measure Build-A-Bear Workshop's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Build-A-Bear Workshop is operating at the current time. Most of Build-A-Bear Workshop's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Build-A-Bear Workshop's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Build-A-Bear Workshop's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Build-A-Bear Workshop to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Go
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Go
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Go
Pattern Recognition
Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Focused Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Go
Companies Directory
Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals
Go
Is Build-A-Bear Workshop's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Build-A-Bear Workshop. If investors know Build-A-Bear will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Build-A-Bear Workshop listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.35
Market Capitalization
248.5 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.28
Return On Assets
0.13
Return On Equity
0.58
The market value of Build-A-Bear Workshop is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Build-A-Bear that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Build-A-Bear Workshop's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Build-A-Bear Workshop's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Build-A-Bear Workshop's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Build-A-Bear Workshop's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Build-A-Bear Workshop's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Build-A-Bear Workshop value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Build-A-Bear Workshop's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.