Brickell Biotech Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

BBI
 Stock
  

USD 0.12  0.00  0.00%   

Brickell Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Brickell Biotech historical stock prices and determine the direction of Brickell Biotech's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Brickell Biotech historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Brickell Biotech naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Brickell Biotech systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Brickell Biotech fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Brickell Biotech to cross-verify your projections.
  
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The current PPandE Turnover is estimated to increase to 4.69. The current Accounts Payable Turnover is estimated to increase to 2.36. The current Weighted Average Shares is estimated to increase to about 86.7 M. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 86.7 M.
Most investors in Brickell Biotech cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Brickell Biotech's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Brickell Biotech's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Brickell Biotech works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Brickell Biotech Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to Brickell Biotech's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Brickell. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Brickell can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Brickell Biotech. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Brickell Biotech's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Brickell Biotech's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Brickell Biotech's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Brickell Biotech.

Brickell Biotech Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Brickell Biotech on the next trading day is expected to be 0.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.033496, mean absolute percentage error of 0.004526, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.15. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Brickell Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Brickell Biotech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Brickell Biotech Stock Forecast Pattern

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Brickell Biotech Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Brickell Biotech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Brickell Biotech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0012 and 6.52, respectively. We have considered Brickell Biotech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 0.12
0.0012
Downside
0.12
Expected Value
6.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Brickell Biotech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Brickell Biotech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0021
MADMean absolute deviation0.0335
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0519
SAESum of the absolute errors17.1498
When Brickell Biotech prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Brickell Biotech trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Brickell Biotech observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Brickell Biotech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Brickell Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Brickell Biotech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Brickell Biotech in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.010.127.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.051.098.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.110.140.17
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
4.004.004.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Brickell Biotech. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Brickell Biotech's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Brickell Biotech's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Brickell Biotech.

Other Forecasting Options for Brickell Biotech

For every potential investor in Brickell, whether a beginner or expert, Brickell Biotech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Brickell Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Brickell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Brickell Biotech's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Brickell Biotech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Brickell Biotech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Brickell Biotech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Brickell Biotech Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Brickell Biotech's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Brickell Biotech's current price.

Brickell Biotech Risk Indicators

The analysis of Brickell Biotech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Brickell Biotech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Brickell Biotech stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Brickell Biotech without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Brickell Biotech

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Brickell Biotech position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Brickell Biotech will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Brickell Biotech Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Brickell Biotech could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Brickell Biotech when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Brickell Biotech - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Brickell Biotech to buy it.
The correlation of Brickell Biotech is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Brickell Biotech moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Brickell Biotech moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Brickell Biotech can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Brickell Biotech to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Brickell Biotech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Brickell Biotech's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

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When running Brickell Biotech price analysis, check to measure Brickell Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Brickell Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Brickell Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Brickell Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Brickell Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Brickell Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Brickell Biotech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Brickell Biotech. If investors know Brickell will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Brickell Biotech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
14.8 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
4.41
Return On Assets
-0.85
Return On Equity
-1.76
The market value of Brickell Biotech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Brickell that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Brickell Biotech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Brickell Biotech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Brickell Biotech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Brickell Biotech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Brickell Biotech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Brickell Biotech value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Brickell Biotech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.