# BRADESCO Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BBDC4 | ## BRL 19.43 0.10 0.51% |

BRADESCO Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast BRADESCO historical stock prices and determine the direction of BRADESCO PN EJ's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of BRADESCO historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.

Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of BRADESCO to cross-verify your projections. BRADESCO |

Most investors in BRADESCO cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the BRADESCO's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets BRADESCO's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

A naive forecasting model for BRADESCO is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of BRADESCO PN EJ value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. ## BRADESCO Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of BRADESCO PN EJ on the next trading day is expected to be 19.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.049116, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BRADESCO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BRADESCO's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

## BRADESCO Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest BRADESCO | BRADESCO Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |

## BRADESCO Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BRADESCO's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BRADESCO's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.59 and 21.36, respectively. We have considered BRADESCO's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

## Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BRADESCO stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BRADESCO stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0969 |

Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |

MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1774 |

MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0098 |

SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.8205 |

## Predictive Modules for BRADESCO

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BRADESCO PN EJ. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of BRADESCO's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of BRADESCO in the context of predictive analytics.

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BRADESCO. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BRADESCO's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BRADESCO's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in BRADESCO PN EJ.

## Other Forecasting Options for BRADESCO

For every potential investor in BRADESCO, whether a beginner or expert, BRADESCO's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BRADESCO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BRADESCO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BRADESCO's price trends.## BRADESCO Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BRADESCO stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BRADESCO could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BRADESCO by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Risk & Return | Correlation |

## BRADESCO PN EJ Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BRADESCO's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BRADESCO's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||

Math Operators | ||

Math Transform | ||

Momentum Indicators | ||

Overlap Studies | ||

Pattern Recognition | ||

Price Transform | ||

Statistic Functions | ||

Volatility Indicators | ||

Volume Indicators |

## BRADESCO Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BRADESCO stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BRADESCO shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BRADESCO stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BRADESCO PN EJ entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Accumulation Distribution | 514448.0 | |||

Daily Balance Of Power | (0.30) | |||

Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||

Day Median Price | 19.34 | |||

Day Typical Price | 19.37 | |||

Price Action Indicator | 0.045 |

## BRADESCO Risk Indicators

The analysis of BRADESCO's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BRADESCO's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting BRADESCO stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

Mean Deviation | 1.21 | |||

Semi Deviation | 1.36 | |||

Standard Deviation | 1.42 | |||

Variance | 2.02 | |||

Downside Variance | 2.07 | |||

Semi Variance | 1.86 | |||

Expected Short fall | (1.21) |

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

## Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in BRADESCO without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.## Did you try this?

### Run Portfolio Holdings Now

## Portfolio HoldingsCheck your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing |

All Next | Launch Module |

## Pair Trading with BRADESCO

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if BRADESCO position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in BRADESCO will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.### Moving together with BRADESCO

0.92 | ITUB4 | ITAUUNIBANCOPN N1 | PairCorr | ||||

0.83 | MGEL4 | MANGELS INDLPN | PairCorr |

The ability to find closely correlated positions to BRADESCO could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace BRADESCO when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back BRADESCO - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling BRADESCO PN EJ to buy it.

The correlation of BRADESCO is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as BRADESCO moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if BRADESCO PN EJ moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BRADESCO can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of BRADESCO to cross-verify your projections. Note that the BRADESCO PN EJ information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other BRADESCO's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

## Complementary Tools for BRADESCO Stock analysis

When running BRADESCO PN EJ price analysis, check to measure BRADESCO's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BRADESCO is operating at the current time. Most of BRADESCO's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BRADESCO's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BRADESCO's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BRADESCO to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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