BRASIL ON Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

BBAS3
  

BRL 38.98  0.99  2.48%   

BRASIL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast BRASIL ON historical stock prices and determine the direction of BRASIL ON NM's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of BRASIL ON historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of BRASIL ON to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in BRASIL ON cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the BRASIL ON's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets BRASIL ON's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
BRASIL ON simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for BRASIL ON NM are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as BRASIL ON NM prices get older.

BRASIL ON Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BRASIL ON NM on the next trading day is expected to be 38.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BRASIL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BRASIL ON's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BRASIL ON Stock Forecast Pattern

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BRASIL ON Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BRASIL ON's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BRASIL ON's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.47 and 40.49, respectively. We have considered BRASIL ON's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 38.98
38.98
Expected Value
40.49
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BRASIL ON stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BRASIL ON stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.8883
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0566
MADMean absolute deviation0.4172
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0118
SAESum of the absolute errors25.45
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting BRASIL ON NM forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent BRASIL ON observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for BRASIL ON

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BRASIL ON NM. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of BRASIL ON's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of BRASIL ON in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
37.4738.9840.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
35.0844.3745.88
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
35.6938.3140.93
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BRASIL ON. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BRASIL ON's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BRASIL ON's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in BRASIL ON NM.

Other Forecasting Options for BRASIL ON

For every potential investor in BRASIL, whether a beginner or expert, BRASIL ON's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BRASIL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BRASIL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BRASIL ON's price trends.

BRASIL ON Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BRASIL ON stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BRASIL ON could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BRASIL ON by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INCUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondLIFE STORAGE INCMaiden Holdings NorthVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BRASIL ON NM Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BRASIL ON's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BRASIL ON's current price.

BRASIL ON Risk Indicators

The analysis of BRASIL ON's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BRASIL ON's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting BRASIL ON stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in BRASIL ON without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of BRASIL ON to cross-verify your projections. Note that the BRASIL ON NM information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other BRASIL ON's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for BRASIL Stock analysis

When running BRASIL ON NM price analysis, check to measure BRASIL ON's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BRASIL ON is operating at the current time. Most of BRASIL ON's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BRASIL ON's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BRASIL ON's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BRASIL ON to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between BRASIL ON's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine BRASIL ON value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BRASIL ON's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.