Bancfirst Corp Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

BANF -  USA Stock  

USD 81.26  0.30  0.37%

Bancfirst Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bancfirst Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Bancfirst Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Bancfirst Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Bancfirst Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Bancfirst Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bancfirst Corp fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bancfirst Corp to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Bancfirst Corp Asset Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Asset Turnover was at 0.047. The current year Weighted Average Shares is expected to grow to about 35.4 M, whereas Weighted Average Shares Diluted is forecasted to decline to about 29.2 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-05-20 Bancfirst Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bancfirst Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Bancfirst Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Bancfirst Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bancfirst Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Bancfirst Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bancfirst Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bancfirst. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Bancfirst Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bancfirst Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bancfirst Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Bancfirst Corp works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Bancfirst Corp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bancfirst Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 81.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.86. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bancfirst Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bancfirst Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bancfirst Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Bancfirst Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bancfirst Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bancfirst Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 79.99 and 82.52, respectively. We have considered Bancfirst Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 81.26
81.26
Expected Value
82.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bancfirst Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bancfirst Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.053
MADMean absolute deviation0.8309
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0102
SAESum of the absolute errors49.8557
When Bancfirst Corp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Bancfirst Corp trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Bancfirst Corp observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Bancfirst Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bancfirst Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bancfirst Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Bancfirst Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
80.0581.3282.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
73.1382.5483.81
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
68.0069.5072.50
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
4.934.934.94
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bancfirst Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bancfirst Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bancfirst Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Bancfirst Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Bancfirst Corp

For every potential investor in Bancfirst, whether a beginner or expert, Bancfirst Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bancfirst Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bancfirst. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bancfirst Corp's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bancfirst Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bancfirst Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bancfirst Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Bancfirst Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bancfirst Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bancfirst Corp's current price.

Bancfirst Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bancfirst Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bancfirst Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Bancfirst Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Bancfirst Corp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Bancfirst Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bancfirst Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bancfirst Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Bancfirst Corp Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bancfirst Corp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bancfirst Corp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bancfirst Corp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bancfirst Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Bancfirst Corp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bancfirst Corp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bancfirst Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bancfirst Corp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bancfirst Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Bancfirst Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Bancfirst Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

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Is Bancfirst Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bancfirst Corp. If investors know Bancfirst will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bancfirst Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Bancfirst Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bancfirst that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bancfirst Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bancfirst Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bancfirst Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bancfirst Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bancfirst Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Bancfirst Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bancfirst Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.