Banc Of Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BANC
 Stock
  

USD 16.23  0.18  1.10%   

Banc Of Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Banc Of historical stock prices and determine the direction of Banc Of California's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Banc Of historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Banc Of to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Banc Of Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Banc Of's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Banc Of's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Banc Of stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Banc Of's open interest, investors have to compare it to Banc Of's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Banc Of is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Banc Of. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Banc Of cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Banc Of's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Banc Of's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Banc Of is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Banc Of California value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Banc Of Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Banc Of California on the next trading day is expected to be 16.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.91.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Banc Of Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Banc Of's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Banc Of Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Banc OfBanc Of Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Banc Of Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Banc Of's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Banc Of's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.92 and 17.90, respectively. We have considered Banc Of's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 16.23
16.41
Expected Value
17.90
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Banc Of stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Banc Of stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.0135
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2936
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0168
SAESum of the absolute errors17.9109
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Banc Of California. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Banc Of. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Banc Of

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Banc Of California. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Banc Of's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Banc Of in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
14.9616.4517.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14.7920.2621.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
16.0016.6416.96
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
21.0023.6725.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Banc Of. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Banc Of's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Banc Of's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Banc Of California.

Other Forecasting Options for Banc Of

For every potential investor in Banc Of, whether a beginner or expert, Banc Of's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Banc Of Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Banc Of. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Banc Of's price trends.

Banc Of Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Banc Of stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Banc Of could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Banc Of by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Kibush Capital CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Banc Of California Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Banc Of's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Banc Of's current price.

Banc Of Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Banc Of stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Banc Of shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Banc Of stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Banc Of California entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Banc Of Risk Indicators

The analysis of Banc Of's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Banc Of's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Banc Of stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Banc Of in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Banc Of's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Banc Of options trading.

Pair Trading with Banc Of

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Banc Of position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Banc Of will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Banc Of

+0.63HPQHp Inc Fiscal Year End 22nd of November 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Banc Of could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Banc Of when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Banc Of - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Banc Of California to buy it.
The correlation of Banc Of is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Banc Of moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Banc Of California moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Banc Of can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Banc Of to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Stock Screener module to find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..

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When running Banc Of California price analysis, check to measure Banc Of's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Banc Of is operating at the current time. Most of Banc Of's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Banc Of's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Banc Of's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Banc Of to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Banc Of's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Banc Of. If investors know Banc Of will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Banc Of listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Banc Of California is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Banc Of that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Banc Of's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Banc Of's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Banc Of's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Banc Of's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Banc Of's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Banc Of value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Banc Of's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.