Autozone Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AZO
 Stock
  

USD 2,166  25.39  1.19%   

Autozone Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Autozone historical stock prices and determine the direction of Autozone's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Autozone historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Autozone naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Autozone systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Autozone fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Autozone to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Autozone PPandE Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of PPandE Turnover is estimated at 3.14. Receivables Turnover is expected to rise to 48.93 this year, although the value of Accrued Expenses Turnover will most likely fall to 27.48. . Autozone Weighted Average Shares is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 26.39 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to rise to about 26.9 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (2 B).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-08 Autozone Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Autozone's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Autozone's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Autozone stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Autozone's open interest, investors have to compare it to Autozone's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Autozone is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Autozone. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Autozone cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Autozone's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Autozone's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Autozone simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Autozone are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Autozone prices get older.

Autozone Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Autozone on the next trading day is expected to be 2,166 with a mean absolute deviation of 36.78, mean absolute percentage error of 2,656, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,207. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Autozone Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Autozone's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Autozone Stock Forecast Pattern

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Autozone Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Autozone's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Autozone's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,163 and 2,168, respectively. We have considered Autozone's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 2,166
2,166
Expected Value
2,168
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Autozone stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Autozone stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.1572
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1698
MADMean absolute deviation36.7805
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0183
SAESum of the absolute errors2206.83
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Autozone forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Autozone observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Autozone

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Autozone. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Autozone's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Autozone in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
2,1642,1672,170
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1,9492,2942,297
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
1,4902,1232,500
Details
Earnings
Estimates (11)
LowProjected EPSHigh
103.63107.41111.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Autozone. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Autozone's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Autozone's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Autozone.

Other Forecasting Options for Autozone

For every potential investor in Autozone, whether a beginner or expert, Autozone's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Autozone Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Autozone. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Autozone's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Autozone stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Autozone could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Autozone by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Autozone Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Autozone's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Autozone's current price.

Autozone Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Autozone stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Autozone shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Autozone stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Autozone entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Autozone Risk Indicators

The analysis of Autozone's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Autozone's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Autozone stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Autozone without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Autozone

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Autozone position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Autozone will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Autozone Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Autozone could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Autozone when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Autozone - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Autozone to buy it.
The correlation of Autozone is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Autozone moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Autozone moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Autozone can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Autozone to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Autozone information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Autozone's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

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When running Autozone price analysis, check to measure Autozone's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Autozone is operating at the current time. Most of Autozone's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Autozone's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Autozone's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Autozone to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Autozone's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Autozone. If investors know Autozone will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Autozone listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Autozone is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Autozone that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Autozone's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Autozone's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Autozone's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Autozone's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Autozone's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Autozone value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Autozone's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.