American Express Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AXP
 Stock
  

USD 145.46  5.44  3.89%   

American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Express historical stock prices and determine the direction of American Express's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Express historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Express to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-07 American Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American Express' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest American Express' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies American Express stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American Express' open interest, investors have to compare it to American Express' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American Express is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in American Express cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Express' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Express' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for American Express is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American Express value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

American Express Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Express on the next trading day is expected to be 135.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.36, mean absolute percentage error of 15.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 204.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Express' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American Express Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest American ExpressAmerican Express Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

American Express Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American Express' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Express' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 133.58 and 137.45, respectively. We have considered American Express' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 145.46
133.58
Downside
135.52
Expected Value
137.45
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Express stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Express stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.8526
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.3561
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0221
SAESum of the absolute errors204.7199
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of American Express. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict American Express. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for American Express

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Express. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Express in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
143.34145.21147.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
130.65169.27171.14
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
151.00190.75233.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Express. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Express' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Express' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Express.

Other Forecasting Options for American Express

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Express' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Express' price trends.

American Express Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Express stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Express could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Express by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Paypal HoldingsAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

American Express Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Express' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Express' current price.

American Express Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Express stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Express shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Express stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Express entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

American Express Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Express' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Express' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting American Express stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

American Express Implied Volatility

    
  49.39  
American Express' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Express stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Express' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Express stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Express' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Express in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Express' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Express options trading.

Pair Trading with American Express

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Express position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Express will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with American Express

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+0.8VRMVroom Inc Normal TradingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Express could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Express when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Express - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Express to buy it.
The correlation of American Express is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Express moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Express moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Express can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Express to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Probability Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running American Express price analysis, check to measure American Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Express is operating at the current time. Most of American Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Express' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Express. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Express listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of American Express is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Express' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Express' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Express' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Express' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Express' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Express value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Express' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.