Axcella Health Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

AXLA
 Stock
  

USD 0.87  0.06  6.45%   

Axcella Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Axcella Health historical stock prices and determine the direction of Axcella Health's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Axcella Health historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axcella Health to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Axcella Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Axcella Health's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Axcella Health's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Axcella Health stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Axcella Health's open interest, investors have to compare it to Axcella Health's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Axcella Health is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Axcella. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Axcella Health cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Axcella Health's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Axcella Health's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Axcella Health polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Axcella Health as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Axcella Health Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Axcella Health on the next trading day is expected to be 0.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.028228, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Axcella Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Axcella Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Axcella Health Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Axcella HealthAxcella Health Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Axcella Health Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Axcella Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Axcella Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0087 and 8.90, respectively. We have considered Axcella Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 0.87
0.0087
Downside
0.81
Expected Value
8.90
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Axcella Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Axcella Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.5431
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1328
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0921
SAESum of the absolute errors8.1018
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Axcella Health historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Axcella Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Axcella Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Axcella Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Axcella Health in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.040.828.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.234.5712.67
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.780.921.05
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
10.0015.7128.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Axcella Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Axcella Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Axcella Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Axcella Health.

Other Forecasting Options for Axcella Health

For every potential investor in Axcella, whether a beginner or expert, Axcella Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Axcella Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Axcella. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Axcella Health's price trends.

Axcella Health Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Axcella Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Axcella Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Axcella Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Siemens Ag ADRVertex PharmaceuticRegeneron PharmaceuticalsAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology Hldgs
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Axcella Health Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Axcella Health's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Axcella Health's current price.

Axcella Health Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Axcella Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Axcella Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Axcella Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Axcella Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Axcella Health Risk Indicators

The analysis of Axcella Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Axcella Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Axcella Health stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Axcella Health Investors Sentiment

The influence of Axcella Health's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Axcella. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Axcella Health's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Axcella. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Axcella can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Axcella Health. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Axcella Health's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Axcella Health's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Axcella Health's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Axcella Health.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Axcella Health in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Axcella Health's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Axcella Health options trading.

Pair Trading with Axcella Health

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Axcella Health position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Axcella Health will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Axcella Health

-0.74JPMJP Morgan Chase Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
-0.72APAApa Corp Potential GrowthPairCorr
-0.68MRNAModerna Potential GrowthPairCorr
-0.64PTENPatterson-Uti Energy Sell-off TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Axcella Health could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Axcella Health when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Axcella Health - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Axcella Health to buy it.
The correlation of Axcella Health is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Axcella Health moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Axcella Health moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Axcella Health can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axcella Health to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

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Is Axcella Health's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Axcella Health. If investors know Axcella will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Axcella Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
68.4 M
Return On Assets
(0.92) 
Return On Equity
(5.43) 
The market value of Axcella Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Axcella that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Axcella Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Axcella Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Axcella Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Axcella Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Axcella Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Axcella Health value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Axcella Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.