Aspira Womans Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

AWH
 Stock
  

USD 1.07  0.13  13.83%   

Aspira Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aspira Womans historical stock prices and determine the direction of Aspira Womans Health's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Aspira Womans historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Aspira Womans naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Aspira Womans Health systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aspira Womans fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aspira Womans to cross-verify your projections.
  
Aspira Womans Inventory Turnover is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Inventory Turnover was reported at 36.76. The current Accounts Payable Turnover is estimated to increase to 5.55, while Accrued Expenses Turnover is projected to decrease to 1.40. . The current Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is estimated to increase to about 52.8 M, while Weighted Average Shares is projected to decrease to roughly 90.7 M.
Most investors in Aspira Womans cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Aspira Womans' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Aspira Womans' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Aspira Womans works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Aspira Womans Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aspira Womans Health on the next trading day is expected to be 1.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.004129, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.08.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aspira Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aspira Womans' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aspira Womans Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aspira WomansAspira Womans Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Aspira Womans Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aspira Womans' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aspira Womans' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0107 and 10.95, respectively. We have considered Aspira Womans' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 1.07
0.0107
Downside
1.08
Expected Value
10.95
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aspira Womans stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aspira Womans stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0089
MADMean absolute deviation0.0522
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0788
SAESum of the absolute errors3.0799
When Aspira Womans Health prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Aspira Womans Health trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Aspira Womans observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Aspira Womans

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aspira Womans Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aspira Womans' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Aspira Womans in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.040.8910.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.081.6611.53
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
4.004.004.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.3-0.29-0.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aspira Womans. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aspira Womans' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aspira Womans' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Aspira Womans Health.

Other Forecasting Options for Aspira Womans

For every potential investor in Aspira, whether a beginner or expert, Aspira Womans' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aspira Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aspira. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aspira Womans' price trends.

Aspira Womans Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aspira Womans stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aspira Womans could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aspira Womans by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Agilent TechnologiesAkumin IncAnixa BiosciencesDrive ShackCharles SchwabBionano GenomicsBarclays Plc ADRGamestop CorpBoeing CompanyGenworth FinancialAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 Covered
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aspira Womans Health Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aspira Womans' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aspira Womans' current price.

Aspira Womans Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aspira Womans stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aspira Womans shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aspira Womans stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aspira Womans Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aspira Womans Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aspira Womans' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aspira Womans' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Aspira Womans stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Aspira Womans Investors Sentiment

The influence of Aspira Womans' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Aspira. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aspira Womans in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aspira Womans' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aspira Womans options trading.

Pair Trading with Aspira Womans

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aspira Womans position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aspira Womans will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Aspira Womans

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Moving against Aspira Womans

0.76AGRXAgile Therapeutics Earnings Call  This WeekPairCorr
0.69AIMAim Immunotech Earnings Call  TomorrowPairCorr
0.65AKUAkumin Inc Earnings Call  TodayPairCorr
0.65AGTCApplied Genetic Tech Fiscal Year End 22nd of September 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aspira Womans could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aspira Womans when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aspira Womans - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aspira Womans Health to buy it.
The correlation of Aspira Womans is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aspira Womans moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aspira Womans Health moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aspira Womans can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aspira Womans to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Aspira Womans Health information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aspira Womans' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

Complementary Tools for Aspira Stock analysis

When running Aspira Womans Health price analysis, check to measure Aspira Womans' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aspira Womans is operating at the current time. Most of Aspira Womans' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aspira Womans' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aspira Womans' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aspira Womans to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aspira Womans' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspira Womans. If investors know Aspira will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspira Womans listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Aspira Womans Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspira that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspira Womans' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspira Womans' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspira Womans' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspira Womans' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspira Womans' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aspira Womans value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspira Womans' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.