Anavex Life Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AVXL
 Stock
  

USD 8.87  0.05  0.57%   

Anavex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Anavex Life historical stock prices and determine the direction of Anavex Life Sciences's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Anavex Life historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Anavex Life naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Anavex Life Sciences systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Anavex Life fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Anavex Life to cross-verify your projections.
  
Anavex Life Cash and Equivalents is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Cash and Equivalents is estimated at 160.93 Million. Total Debt is expected to hike to about 79 K this year, although the value of Trade and Non Trade Payables will most likely fall to nearly 4.5 M.
Most investors in Anavex Life cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Anavex Life's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Anavex Life's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Anavex Life is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Anavex Life Sciences value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Anavex Life Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Anavex Life Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 6.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Anavex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Anavex Life's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Anavex Life Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Anavex LifeAnavex Life Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Anavex Life Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Anavex Life's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Anavex Life's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.58 and 12.20, respectively. We have considered Anavex Life's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 8.87
6.39
Expected Value
12.20
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Anavex Life stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Anavex Life stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2328
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.494
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0446
SAESum of the absolute errors30.137
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Anavex Life Sciences. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Anavex Life. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Anavex Life

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Anavex Life Sciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Anavex Life's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Anavex Life in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
2.738.5014.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
7.9815.5621.33
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
8.7011.8615.01
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
30.7535.9540.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Anavex Life. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Anavex Life's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Anavex Life's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Anavex Life Sciences.

Other Forecasting Options for Anavex Life

For every potential investor in Anavex, whether a beginner or expert, Anavex Life's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Anavex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Anavex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Anavex Life's price trends.

Anavex Life Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Anavex Life stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Anavex Life could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Anavex Life by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Northwest HealthcareAnheuser Busch InbevAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Anavex Life Sciences Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Anavex Life's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Anavex Life's current price.

Anavex Life Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Anavex Life stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Anavex Life shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Anavex Life stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Anavex Life Sciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Anavex Life Risk Indicators

The analysis of Anavex Life's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Anavex Life's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Anavex Life stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Anavex Life in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Anavex Life's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Anavex Life options trading.

Pair Trading with Anavex Life

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Anavex Life position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Anavex Life will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Anavex Life could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Anavex Life when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Anavex Life - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Anavex Life Sciences to buy it.
The correlation of Anavex Life is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Anavex Life moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Anavex Life Sciences moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Anavex Life can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Anavex Life to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

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Is Anavex Life's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Anavex Life. If investors know Anavex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Anavex Life listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Anavex Life Sciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Anavex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Anavex Life's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Anavex Life's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Anavex Life's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Anavex Life's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Anavex Life's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Anavex Life value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Anavex Life's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.