Anavex Lf Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

AVXL
 Stock
  

USD 9.10  2.79  23.47%   

Anavex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Anavex Lf historical stock prices and determine the direction of Anavex Lf SC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Anavex Lf historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Anavex Lf naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Anavex Lf SC systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Anavex Lf fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Anavex Lf to cross-verify your projections.
  
Anavex Lf Total Debt is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Total Debt is estimated at 79,039.66. Debt Current is expected to hike to about 78.7 K this year, although the value of Accounts Payable will most likely fall to nearly 3.4 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-02 Anavex Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Anavex Lf's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Anavex Lf's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Anavex Lf stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Anavex Lf's open interest, investors have to compare it to Anavex Lf's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Anavex Lf is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Anavex. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Anavex Lf cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Anavex Lf's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Anavex Lf's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Anavex Lf SC is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Anavex Lf 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Anavex Lf SC on the next trading day is expected to be 11.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57, mean absolute percentage error of 0.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Anavex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Anavex Lf's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Anavex Lf Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Anavex LfAnavex Lf Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Anavex Lf Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Anavex Lf's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Anavex Lf's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.88 and 16.24, respectively. We have considered Anavex Lf's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 9.10
11.06
Expected Value
16.24
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Anavex Lf stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Anavex Lf stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.2994
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0503
MADMean absolute deviation0.5732
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0504
SAESum of the absolute errors32.67
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Anavex Lf. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Anavex Lf SC and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Anavex Lf

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Anavex Lf SC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Anavex Lf's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Anavex Lf in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
3.919.0914.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.1915.7720.95
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
10.2411.8013.35
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
30.7535.9540.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Anavex Lf. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Anavex Lf's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Anavex Lf's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Anavex Lf SC.

Other Forecasting Options for Anavex Lf

For every potential investor in Anavex, whether a beginner or expert, Anavex Lf's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Anavex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Anavex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Anavex Lf's price trends.

Anavex Lf Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Anavex Lf stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Anavex Lf could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Anavex Lf by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Siemens Ag ADRVertex PharmaceuticRegeneron PharmaceuticalsAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology Hldgs
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Anavex Lf SC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Anavex Lf's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Anavex Lf's current price.

Anavex Lf Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Anavex Lf stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Anavex Lf shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Anavex Lf stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Anavex Lf SC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Anavex Lf Risk Indicators

The analysis of Anavex Lf's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Anavex Lf's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Anavex Lf stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Anavex Lf Investors Sentiment

The influence of Anavex Lf's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Anavex. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Anavex Lf's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Anavex. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Anavex can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Anavex Lf SC. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Anavex Lf's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Anavex Lf's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Anavex Lf's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Anavex Lf.

Anavex Lf Implied Volatility

    
  528.63  
Anavex Lf's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Anavex Lf SC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Anavex Lf's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Anavex Lf stock will not fluctuate a lot when Anavex Lf's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Anavex Lf in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Anavex Lf's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Anavex Lf options trading.

Pair Trading with Anavex Lf

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Anavex Lf position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Anavex Lf will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Anavex Lf

+0.71MRNAModerna Potential GrowthPairCorr
+0.63LENLennar Corp Fiscal Year End 21st of December 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Anavex Lf could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Anavex Lf when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Anavex Lf - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Anavex Lf SC to buy it.
The correlation of Anavex Lf is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Anavex Lf moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Anavex Lf SC moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Anavex Lf can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Anavex Lf to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

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Is Anavex Lf's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Anavex Lf. If investors know Anavex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Anavex Lf listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
926.7 M
Return On Assets
(0.17) 
Return On Equity
(0.29) 
The market value of Anavex Lf SC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Anavex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Anavex Lf's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Anavex Lf's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Anavex Lf's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Anavex Lf's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Anavex Lf's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Anavex Lf value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Anavex Lf's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.