Avantis Short-Term Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

AVGNX -  USA Fund  

USD 9.34  0.01  0.11%

Avantis Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Avantis Short-Term historical stock prices and determine the direction of Avantis Short-Term Fixed's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Avantis Short-Term historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avantis Short-Term to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Most investors in Avantis Short-Term cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Avantis Short-Term's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Avantis Short-Term's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Avantis Short-Term polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Avantis Short-Term Fixed as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Avantis Short-Term Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Avantis Short-Term Fixed on the next trading day is expected to be 9.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.022064, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00094754, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.37. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Avantis Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Avantis Short-Term's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Avantis Short-Term Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Avantis Short-TermAvantis Short-Term Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Avantis Short-Term Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Avantis Short-Term's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Avantis Short-Term's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.05 and 9.49, respectively. We have considered Avantis Short-Term's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 9.34
9.27
Expected Value
9.49
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Avantis Short-Term mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Avantis Short-Term mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.9867
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0221
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0023
SAESum of the absolute errors1.368
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Avantis Short-Term historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Avantis Short-Term

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avantis Short-Term Fixed. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avantis Short-Term's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Avantis Short-Term in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.129.349.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
9.139.359.57
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9.259.389.51
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Avantis Short-Term. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Avantis Short-Term's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Avantis Short-Term's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Avantis Short-Term Fixed.

Other Forecasting Options for Avantis Short-Term

For every potential investor in Avantis, whether a beginner or expert, Avantis Short-Term's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Avantis Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Avantis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Avantis Short-Term's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Avantis Short-Term mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Avantis Short-Term could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Avantis Short-Term by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Avantis Short-Term Fixed Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Avantis Short-Term's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Avantis Short-Term's current price.

Avantis Short-Term Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Avantis Short-Term mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Avantis Short-Term shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Avantis Short-Term mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Avantis Short-Term Fixed entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Avantis Short-Term Risk Indicators

The analysis of Avantis Short-Term's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Avantis Short-Term's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Avantis Short-Term stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Avantis Short-Term Investors Sentiment

The influence of Avantis Short-Term's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Avantis. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Avantis Short-Term in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Avantis Short-Term's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Avantis Short-Term options trading.

Current Sentiment - AVGNX

Avantis Short-Term Fixed Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unresponsive in their sentiment towards investing in Avantis Short-Term Fixed. What is your sentiment towards investing in Avantis Short-Term Fixed? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avantis Short-Term to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Avantis Short-Term Fixed information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Avantis Short-Term's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

Complementary Tools for Avantis Mutual Fund analysis

When running Avantis Short-Term Fixed price analysis, check to measure Avantis Short-Term's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avantis Short-Term is operating at the current time. Most of Avantis Short-Term's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avantis Short-Term's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avantis Short-Term's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avantis Short-Term to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Avantis Short-Term's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Avantis Short-Term value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avantis Short-Term's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.