Astra Space Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ASTR -  USA Stock  

USD 2.47  0.12  5.11%

Astra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Astra Space historical stock prices and determine the direction of Astra Space's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Astra Space historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Astra Space naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Astra Space systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Astra Space fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astra Space to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Open Interest Agains t 2022-06-17 Astra Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Astra Space's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Astra Space's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Astra Space stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Astra Space's open interest, investors have to compare it to Astra Space's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Astra Space is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Astra. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Astra Space cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Astra Space's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Astra Space's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Astra Space is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Astra Space value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Astra Space Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Astra Space on the next trading day is expected to be 2.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.039348, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.21. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Astra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Astra Space's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Astra Space Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Astra SpaceAstra Space Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Astra Space Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Astra Space's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Astra Space's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0247 and 7.60, respectively. We have considered Astra Space's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 2.47
0.0247
Downside
2.44
Expected Value
7.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Astra Space stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Astra Space stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.8752
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.151
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0458
SAESum of the absolute errors9.2104
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Astra Space. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Astra Space. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Astra Space

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astra Space. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astra Space's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Astra Space in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.122.427.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.234.559.70
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
9.0011.0013.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.14-0.91-0.68
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Astra Space. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Astra Space's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Astra Space's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Astra Space.

Other Forecasting Options for Astra Space

For every potential investor in Astra, whether a beginner or expert, Astra Space's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Astra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Astra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Astra Space's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Astra Space stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Astra Space could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Astra Space by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Astra Space Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Astra Space's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Astra Space's current price.

Astra Space Risk Indicators

The analysis of Astra Space's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Astra Space's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Astra Space stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Astra Space Investors Sentiment

The influence of Astra Space's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Astra. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Astra Space Implied Volatility

    
  67.76  
Astra Space's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Astra Space stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Astra Space's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Astra Space stock will not fluctuate a lot when Astra Space's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Astra Space in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Astra Space's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Astra Space options trading.

Current Sentiment - ASTR

Astra Space Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unresponsive in their sentiment towards investing in Astra Space. What is your sentiment towards investing in Astra Space? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Astra Space

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Astra Space position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Astra Space will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Astra Space Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Astra Space could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Astra Space when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Astra Space - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Astra Space to buy it.
The correlation of Astra Space is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Astra Space moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Astra Space moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Astra Space can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astra Space to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Astra Space information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Astra Space's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

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When running Astra Space price analysis, check to measure Astra Space's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Astra Space is operating at the current time. Most of Astra Space's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Astra Space's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Astra Space's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Astra Space to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Astra Space's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Astra Space. If investors know Astra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Astra Space listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Astra Space is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Astra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Astra Space's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Astra Space's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Astra Space's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Astra Space's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Astra Space's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Astra Space value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Astra Space's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.