Armour Residential Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ARR
 Stock
  

USD 4.87  0.06  1.25%   

Armour Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Armour Residential historical stock prices and determine the direction of Armour Residential R's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Armour Residential historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Armour Residential to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Armour Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Armour Residential's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Armour Residential's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Armour Residential stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Armour Residential's open interest, investors have to compare it to Armour Residential's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Armour Residential is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Armour. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Armour Residential cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Armour Residential's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Armour Residential's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Armour Residential is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Armour Residential R value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Armour Residential Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Armour Residential R on the next trading day is expected to be 4.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.038376, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.35.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Armour Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Armour Residential's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Armour Residential Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Armour ResidentialArmour Residential Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Armour Residential Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Armour Residential's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Armour Residential's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.43 and 6.60, respectively. We have considered Armour Residential's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 4.87
4.01
Expected Value
6.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Armour Residential stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Armour Residential stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.8502
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1533
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0234
SAESum of the absolute errors9.3504
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Armour Residential R. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Armour Residential. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Armour Residential

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Armour Residential. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Armour Residential's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Armour Residential in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
2.234.817.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
4.016.599.17
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
4.996.688.36
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
11.0011.0011.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Armour Residential. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Armour Residential's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Armour Residential's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Armour Residential.

Other Forecasting Options for Armour Residential

For every potential investor in Armour, whether a beginner or expert, Armour Residential's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Armour Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Armour. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Armour Residential's price trends.

Armour Residential Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Armour Residential stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Armour Residential could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Armour Residential by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Armour Residential Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Armour Residential's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Armour Residential's current price.

Armour Residential Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Armour Residential stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Armour Residential shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Armour Residential stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Armour Residential R entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Armour Residential Risk Indicators

The analysis of Armour Residential's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Armour Residential's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Armour Residential stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Armour Residential in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Armour Residential's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Armour Residential options trading.

Pair Trading with Armour Residential

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Armour Residential position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Armour Residential will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Armour Residential

+0.67JPMJP Morgan Chase Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
+0.79HPQHp Inc Fiscal Year End 22nd of November 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Armour Residential could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Armour Residential when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Armour Residential - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Armour Residential R to buy it.
The correlation of Armour Residential is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Armour Residential moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Armour Residential moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Armour Residential can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Armour Residential to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Shere Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Armour Residential price analysis, check to measure Armour Residential's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Armour Residential is operating at the current time. Most of Armour Residential's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Armour Residential's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Armour Residential's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Armour Residential to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Go
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Go
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
Go
Is Armour Residential's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Armour Residential. If investors know Armour will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Armour Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Armour Residential is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Armour that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Armour Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Armour Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Armour Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Armour Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Armour Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Armour Residential value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Armour Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.