ARK Crypto Coin Forecast - Naive Prediction

ARK
 Crypto
  

USD 0.24  0.01  4.00%   

ARK Crypto Coin Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ARK historical crypto prices and determine the direction of ARK's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of ARK historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of ARK to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in ARK cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ARK's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ARK's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for ARK is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ARK value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ARK Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ARK on the next trading day is expected to be 0.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.019159, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00060852, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.19.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ARK Crypto Coin prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ARK's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ARK Crypto Coin Forecast Pattern

ARK Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ARK's Crypto Coin value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ARK's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0024 and 6.05, respectively. We have considered ARK's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 0.24
0.0024
Downside
0.24
Expected Value
6.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ARK crypto coin data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ARK crypto coin, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.5439
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0192
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0591
SAESum of the absolute errors1.1879
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ARK. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ARK. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ARK

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ARK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ARK's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ARK in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.010.246.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.010.246.01
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.230.280.32
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ARK. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ARK's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ARK's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in ARK.

Other Forecasting Options for ARK

For every potential investor in ARK, whether a beginner or expert, ARK's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ARK Crypto Coin price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ARK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ARK's price trends.

ARK Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ARK crypto coin to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ARK could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ARK by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Worldwide Asset eXchangeLiskaelfBTSBTTTRXEOSSTEEMDLUNCLUNAXTZAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQ
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ARK Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ARK's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ARK's current price.

ARK Risk Indicators

The analysis of ARK's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ARK's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting ARK stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some cryptocurrency investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. However, unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ARK in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the crypto's market sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools provided by cryptocurrency exchanges to gauge market sentiment could be utilized to time the market in a somewhat predictable way.

Pair Trading with ARK

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ARK position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ARK will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with ARK

+0.99WAXPWorldwide Asset eXchangePairCorr
+0.96LSKLiskPairCorr
+0.74ELFaelfPairCorr
+0.72BTSBTSPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ARK could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ARK when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ARK - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ARK to buy it.
The correlation of ARK is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ARK moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ARK moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ARK can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of ARK to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Other Tools for ARK Crypto Coin

When running ARK price analysis, check to measure ARK's coin volatility and technical momentum indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ARK is operating at the current time. Most of ARK's value examination focuses on studying past and present price actions to predict the probability of ARK's future price movements. You can analyze the coin against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ARK's coin price. Additionally, you may evaluate how adding ARK to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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