Ardor Crypto Coin Forecast - Naive Prediction

ARDR
 Crypto
  

USD 0.11  0.01  8.33%   

Ardor Crypto Coin Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ardor historical stock prices and determine the direction of Ardor's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Ardor historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ardor to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Ardor cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ardor's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ardor's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Ardor is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Ardor value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Ardor Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ardor on the next trading day is expected to be 0.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.005544, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00005933, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ardor Crypto Coin prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ardor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ardor Crypto Coin Forecast Pattern

Ardor Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ardor's Crypto Coin value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ardor's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0011 and 6.46, respectively. We have considered Ardor's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 0.11
0.0011
Downside
0.11
Expected Value
6.46
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ardor crypto coin data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ardor crypto coin, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.3781
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0055
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.051
SAESum of the absolute errors0.3382
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Ardor. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Ardor. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Ardor

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ardor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ardor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ardor in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.010.106.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.000.096.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.090.110.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ardor. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ardor's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ardor's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ardor.

Other Forecasting Options for Ardor

For every potential investor in Ardor, whether a beginner or expert, Ardor's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ardor Crypto Coin price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ardor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ardor's price trends.

Ardor Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ardor crypto coin to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ardor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ardor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
XRPSolanaCardanoAvalanchePolkadotFTX TokenPolygonUniswap Protocol TokenChainlinkOptimismApeCoinAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPER
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ardor Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ardor's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ardor's current price.

Ardor Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ardor's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ardor's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Ardor stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Ardor without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Fundamental Analysis

View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements
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Pair Trading with Ardor

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ardor position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ardor will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Ardor

0.77XRPXRPPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ardor could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ardor when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ardor - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ardor to buy it.
The correlation of Ardor is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ardor moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ardor moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ardor can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ardor to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Ardor information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ardor's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Shere Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Other Tools for Ardor Crypto Coin

When running Ardor price analysis, check to measure Ardor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ardor is operating at the current time. Most of Ardor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ardor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ardor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ardor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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