Algonquin Power Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AQNA
 Stock
  

USD 24.33  0.23  0.94%   

Algonquin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Algonquin Power historical stock prices and determine the direction of Algonquin Power Utilities's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Algonquin Power historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Algonquin Power to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Algonquin Power cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Algonquin Power's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Algonquin Power's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Algonquin Power is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Algonquin Power Utilities value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Algonquin Power Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Algonquin Power Utilities on the next trading day is expected to be 23.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.19.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Algonquin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Algonquin Power's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Algonquin Power Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Algonquin PowerAlgonquin Power Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Algonquin Power Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Algonquin Power's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Algonquin Power's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.67 and 25.25, respectively. We have considered Algonquin Power's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 24.33
23.96
Expected Value
25.25
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Algonquin Power stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Algonquin Power stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.294
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3579
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0153
SAESum of the absolute errors22.1901
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Algonquin Power Utilities. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Algonquin Power. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Algonquin Power

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Algonquin Power Utilities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Algonquin Power's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Algonquin Power in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
23.0424.3225.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
22.4123.6924.97
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
22.4823.6924.90
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Algonquin Power. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Algonquin Power's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Algonquin Power's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Algonquin Power Utilities.

Other Forecasting Options for Algonquin Power

For every potential investor in Algonquin, whether a beginner or expert, Algonquin Power's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Algonquin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Algonquin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Algonquin Power's price trends.

Algonquin Power Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Algonquin Power stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Algonquin Power could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Algonquin Power by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
PGE CorpSouth Jersey IndustriesDoverUnited RentalsAlcoa CorpVerizon CommunicationsCoca-ColaCisco SystemsWalmartAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group Limited
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Algonquin Power Utilities Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Algonquin Power's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Algonquin Power's current price.

Algonquin Power Risk Indicators

The analysis of Algonquin Power's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Algonquin Power's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Algonquin Power stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Algonquin Power in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Algonquin Power's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Algonquin Power options trading.

Pair Trading with Algonquin Power

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Algonquin Power position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Algonquin Power will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Algonquin Power could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Algonquin Power when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Algonquin Power - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Algonquin Power Utilities to buy it.
The correlation of Algonquin Power is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Algonquin Power moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Algonquin Power Utilities moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Algonquin Power can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Algonquin Power to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Algonquin Power Utilities price analysis, check to measure Algonquin Power's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Algonquin Power is operating at the current time. Most of Algonquin Power's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Algonquin Power's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Algonquin Power's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Algonquin Power to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format
Go
Share Portfolio
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Go
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Go
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Focused Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Go
Is Algonquin Power's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Algonquin Power. If investors know Algonquin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Algonquin Power listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Algonquin Power Utilities is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Algonquin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Algonquin Power's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Algonquin Power's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Algonquin Power's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Algonquin Power's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Algonquin Power's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Algonquin Power value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Algonquin Power's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.