Blue Apron Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

APRN -  USA Stock  

USD 3.30  0.18  5.17%

Blue Apron Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Blue Apron historical stock prices and determine the direction of Blue Apron Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Blue Apron historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Blue Apron naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Blue Apron Holdings systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Blue Apron fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Apron to cross-verify your projections.
  
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The value of Asset Turnover is estimated to slide to 2.11. The value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated to slide to about 17.7 M. The value of Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to slide to about 17.7 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-05-20 Blue Apron Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Blue Apron's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Blue Apron's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Blue Apron stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Blue Apron's open interest, investors have to compare it to Blue Apron's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Blue Apron is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Blue Apron. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Blue Apron cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Blue Apron's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Blue Apron's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Blue Apron is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Blue Apron Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Blue Apron Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 3.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.62. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Blue Apron Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Blue Apron's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Blue Apron Stock Forecast Pattern

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Blue Apron Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Blue Apron's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Blue Apron's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.033 and 10.49, respectively. We have considered Blue Apron's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 3.30
3.30
Expected Value
10.49
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Blue Apron stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Blue Apron stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.1748
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0512
MADMean absolute deviation0.2478
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0603
SAESum of the absolute errors14.62
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Blue Apron Holdings price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Blue Apron. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Blue Apron

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blue Apron Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Blue Apron's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Blue Apron in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.163.1810.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.305.9413.21
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.0014.0014.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Blue Apron. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Blue Apron's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Blue Apron's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Blue Apron Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Blue Apron

For every potential investor in Blue Apron, whether a beginner or expert, Blue Apron's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Blue Apron Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Blue Apron. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Blue Apron's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Blue Apron stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Blue Apron could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Blue Apron by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Blue Apron Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Blue Apron's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Blue Apron's current price.

Blue Apron Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Blue Apron stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Blue Apron shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Blue Apron stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Blue Apron Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Blue Apron Risk Indicators

The analysis of Blue Apron's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Blue Apron's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Blue Apron stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Blue Apron without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Blue Apron

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Blue Apron position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Blue Apron will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Blue Apron Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Blue Apron could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Blue Apron when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Blue Apron - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Blue Apron Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Blue Apron is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Blue Apron moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Blue Apron Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Blue Apron can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Apron to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Blue Apron Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Blue Apron's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Commodity Channel Index module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

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When running Blue Apron Holdings price analysis, check to measure Blue Apron's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blue Apron is operating at the current time. Most of Blue Apron's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blue Apron's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blue Apron's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blue Apron to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Blue Apron's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blue Apron. If investors know Blue Apron will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blue Apron listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Blue Apron Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blue Apron that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blue Apron's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blue Apron's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blue Apron's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blue Apron's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blue Apron's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Blue Apron value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blue Apron's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.