Blue Apron Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

APRN -  USA Stock  

USD 3.65  0.03  0.82%

Blue Apron Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Blue Apron historical stock prices and determine the direction of Blue Apron Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Blue Apron historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Blue Apron naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Blue Apron Holdings systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Blue Apron fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Apron to cross-verify your projections.
  
Refresh
The value of Asset Turnover is estimated to slide to 2.11. The value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated to slide to about 17.7 M. The value of Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to slide to about 17.7 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-05-20 Blue Apron Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Blue Apron's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Blue Apron's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Blue Apron stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Blue Apron's open interest, investors have to compare it to Blue Apron's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Blue Apron is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Blue Apron. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Blue Apron cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Blue Apron's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Blue Apron's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Blue Apron is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Blue Apron Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Blue Apron Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of May 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Blue Apron Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 3.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.49. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Blue Apron Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Blue Apron's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Blue Apron Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Blue ApronBlue Apron Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Blue Apron Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Blue Apron's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Blue Apron's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0365 and 10.98, respectively. We have considered Blue Apron's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 3.65
0.0365
Downside
3.66
Expected Value
10.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Blue Apron stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Blue Apron stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.5896
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2211
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0526
SAESum of the absolute errors13.4873
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Blue Apron Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Blue Apron. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Blue Apron

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blue Apron Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Blue Apron's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Blue Apron in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.183.5610.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.316.1813.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
3.033.714.38
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.0014.0014.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Blue Apron. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Blue Apron's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Blue Apron's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Blue Apron Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Blue Apron

For every potential investor in Blue Apron, whether a beginner or expert, Blue Apron's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Blue Apron Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Blue Apron. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Blue Apron's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Blue Apron stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Blue Apron could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Blue Apron by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Blue Apron Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Blue Apron's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Blue Apron's current price.

Blue Apron Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Blue Apron stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Blue Apron shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Blue Apron stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Blue Apron Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Blue Apron Risk Indicators

The analysis of Blue Apron's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Blue Apron's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Blue Apron stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Blue Apron Investors Sentiment

The influence of Blue Apron's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Blue Apron. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Blue Apron Implied Volatility

    
  212.07  
Blue Apron's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Blue Apron Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Blue Apron's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Blue Apron stock will not fluctuate a lot when Blue Apron's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Blue Apron in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Blue Apron's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Blue Apron options trading.

Current Sentiment - APRN

Blue Apron Holdings Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unresponsive in their sentiment towards investing in Blue Apron Holdings. What is your opinion about investing in Blue Apron Holdings? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
Skip
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Apron to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Blue Apron Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Blue Apron's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for Blue Apron Stock analysis

When running Blue Apron Holdings price analysis, check to measure Blue Apron's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blue Apron is operating at the current time. Most of Blue Apron's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blue Apron's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blue Apron's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blue Apron to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Go
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Go
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Go
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Portfolio Suggestion
Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
Go
Is Blue Apron's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blue Apron. If investors know Blue Apron will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blue Apron listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Blue Apron Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blue Apron that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blue Apron's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blue Apron's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blue Apron's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blue Apron's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blue Apron's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Blue Apron value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blue Apron's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.