Annovis Bio Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ANVS -  USA Stock  

USD 9.41  0.36  3.68%

Annovis Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Annovis Bio historical stock prices and determine the direction of Annovis Bio's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Annovis Bio historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Annovis Bio naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Annovis Bio systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Annovis Bio fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Annovis Bio to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Annovis Bio Total Assets are relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Annovis Bio reported last year Total Assets of 46 Million. As of 05/19/2022, Current Assets is likely to grow to about 49.6 M, while Current Liabilities is likely to drop slightly above 1.5 M.
Most investors in Annovis Bio cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Annovis Bio's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Annovis Bio's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Annovis Bio - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Annovis Bio prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Annovis Bio price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Annovis Bio.

Annovis Bio Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Annovis Bio on the next trading day is expected to be 9.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.30. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Annovis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Annovis Bio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Annovis Bio Stock Forecast Pattern

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Annovis Bio Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Annovis Bio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Annovis Bio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.82 and 13.81, respectively. We have considered Annovis Bio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 9.41
9.31
Expected Value
13.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Annovis Bio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Annovis Bio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0941
MADMean absolute deviation0.4797
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.04
SAESum of the absolute errors28.3036
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Annovis Bio observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Annovis Bio observations.

Predictive Modules for Annovis Bio

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Annovis Bio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Annovis Bio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Annovis Bio in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
4.889.3813.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.4824.4228.92
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
70.0070.0070.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Annovis Bio. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Annovis Bio's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Annovis Bio's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Annovis Bio.

Other Forecasting Options for Annovis Bio

For every potential investor in Annovis, whether a beginner or expert, Annovis Bio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Annovis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Annovis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Annovis Bio's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Annovis Bio stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Annovis Bio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Annovis Bio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Annovis Bio Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Annovis Bio's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Annovis Bio's current price.

Annovis Bio Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Annovis Bio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Annovis Bio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Annovis Bio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Annovis Bio entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Annovis Bio Risk Indicators

The analysis of Annovis Bio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Annovis Bio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Annovis Bio stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Annovis Bio Investors Sentiment

The influence of Annovis Bio's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Annovis. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Annovis Bio in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Annovis Bio's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Annovis Bio options trading.

Current Sentiment - ANVS

Annovis Bio Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unresponsive in their sentiment towards investing in Annovis Bio. What is your sentiment towards investing in Annovis Bio? Are you bullish or bearish?
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Pair Trading with Annovis Bio

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Annovis Bio position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Annovis Bio will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Annovis Bio Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Annovis Bio could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Annovis Bio when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Annovis Bio - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Annovis Bio to buy it.
The correlation of Annovis Bio is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Annovis Bio moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Annovis Bio moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Annovis Bio can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Annovis Bio to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Annovis Bio information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Annovis Bio's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.

Complementary Tools for Annovis Stock analysis

When running Annovis Bio price analysis, check to measure Annovis Bio's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Annovis Bio is operating at the current time. Most of Annovis Bio's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Annovis Bio's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Annovis Bio's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Annovis Bio to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Annovis Bio's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Annovis Bio. If investors know Annovis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Annovis Bio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Annovis Bio is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Annovis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Annovis Bio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Annovis Bio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Annovis Bio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Annovis Bio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Annovis Bio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Annovis Bio value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Annovis Bio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.