Amazon Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

AMZN -  USA Stock  

USD 3,415  29.09  0.84%

Amazon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Amazon historical stock prices and determine the direction of Amazon Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Amazon historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Amazon naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Amazon Inc systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Amazon fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amazon to cross-verify your projections.

Amazon Stock Forecast 

 
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Amazon PPandE Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of PPandE Turnover is estimated at 4.25. Receivables Turnover is expected to rise to 19.77 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 9.18. . Amazon Weighted Average Shares is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 535.47 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to rise to about 545.5 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (932.2 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2021-10-22 Amazon Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Amazon's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Amazon's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Amazon stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Amazon's open interest, investors have to compare it to Amazon's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Amazon is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Amazon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Amazon cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Amazon's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Amazon's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Amazon price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Amazon Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 21st of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Amazon Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 3,339 with a mean absolute deviation of 89.64, mean absolute percentage error of 10,713, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5,468. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amazon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amazon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amazon Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest AmazonAmazon Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Amazon Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amazon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amazon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3,337 and 3,340, respectively. We have considered Amazon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3,415
20th of October 2021
3,339
Expected Value
3,340
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amazon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amazon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.3898
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation89.6388
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0265
SAESum of the absolute errors5467.9686
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Amazon Inc historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Amazon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amazon Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amazon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amazon in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
3,4223,4233,769
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
3,0833,6083,610
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
3,1843,3393,495
Details
31 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
3,7204,1675,000
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amazon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amazon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amazon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Amazon Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Amazon

For every potential investor in Amazon, whether a beginner or expert, Amazon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amazon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amazon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amazon's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amazon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amazon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amazon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Amazon Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amazon's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amazon's current price.

Amazon Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amazon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amazon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amazon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amazon Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amazon Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amazon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amazon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Amazon stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Amazon Investors Sentiment

The influence of Amazon's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Amazon. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - AMZN

Amazon Inc Investor Sentiment

Majority of Macroaxis users are presently bullish on Amazon Inc. What is your sentiment towards investing in Amazon Inc? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Amazon

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Amazon position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Amazon will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Amazon Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Amazon and Mogu Inc ADR. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amazon to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Amazon Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amazon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for Amazon Stock analysis

When running Amazon Inc price analysis, check to measure Amazon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amazon is operating at the current time. Most of Amazon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amazon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amazon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amazon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Amazon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amazon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amazon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amazon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amazon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amazon Inc underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amazon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Amazon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amazon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.