American Beacon Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

AMPAX
 Fund
  

USD 15.97  0.31  1.90%   

American Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Beacon historical stock prices and determine the direction of American Beacon Mid-Cap's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Beacon historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Beacon to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in American Beacon cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Beacon's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Beacon's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for American Beacon - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When American Beacon prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in American Beacon price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of American Beacon Mid-Cap.

American Beacon Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Beacon Mid-Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 15.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Beacon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American Beacon Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest American BeaconAmerican Beacon Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

American Beacon Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American Beacon's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Beacon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.53 and 17.19, respectively. We have considered American Beacon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 15.97
15.86
Expected Value
17.19
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Beacon mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Beacon mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0076
MADMean absolute deviation0.1808
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0106
SAESum of the absolute errors10.6666
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past American Beacon observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older American Beacon Mid-Cap observations.

Predictive Modules for American Beacon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Beacon Mid-Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Beacon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Beacon in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
14.6315.9617.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.2014.5317.57
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Beacon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Beacon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Beacon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Beacon Mid-Cap.

Other Forecasting Options for American Beacon

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Beacon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Beacon's price trends.

American Beacon Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Beacon mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Beacon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Beacon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
ATT IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

American Beacon Mid-Cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Beacon's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Beacon's current price.

American Beacon Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Beacon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Beacon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting American Beacon stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Beacon in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Beacon's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Beacon options trading.

Pair Trading with American Beacon

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Beacon position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Beacon will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with American Beacon

+0.64WMTWalmart TrendingPairCorr
+0.9DISWalt Disney Fiscal Year End 9th of November 2022 PairCorr
+0.7JPMJP Morgan Chase Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Beacon could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Beacon when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Beacon - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Beacon Mid-Cap to buy it.
The correlation of American Beacon is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Beacon moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Beacon Mid-Cap moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Beacon can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Beacon to cross-verify your projections. Note that the American Beacon Mid-Cap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Beacon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

Complementary Tools for American Mutual Fund analysis

When running American Beacon Mid-Cap price analysis, check to measure American Beacon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Beacon is operating at the current time. Most of American Beacon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Beacon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Beacon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Beacon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Beacon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Beacon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Beacon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.