Allena Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ALNA
 Stock
  

USD 0.026  0.0007  2.77%   

Allena Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Allena Pharmaceuticals historical stock prices and determine the direction of Allena Pharmaceuticals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Allena Pharmaceuticals historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allena Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Allena Pharmaceuticals cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Allena Pharmaceuticals' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Allena Pharmaceuticals' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Allena Pharmaceuticals is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Allena Pharmaceuticals value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Allena Pharmaceuticals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Allena Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.034444 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.011493, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00029634, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allena Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allena Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Allena Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Allena PharmaceuticalsAllena Pharmaceuticals Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Allena Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Allena Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allena Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.00026 and 19.08, respectively. We have considered Allena Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 0.026
0.00026
Downside
0.034444
Expected Value
19.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allena Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allena Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.9865
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0115
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0921
SAESum of the absolute errors0.7011
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Allena Pharmaceuticals. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Allena Pharmaceuticals. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Allena Pharmaceuticals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allena Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allena Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Allena Pharmaceuticals in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.000.0319.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.061.2820.33
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.0151570.080.12
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
1.255.0611.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Allena Pharmaceuticals. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Allena Pharmaceuticals' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Allena Pharmaceuticals' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Allena Pharmaceuticals.

Other Forecasting Options for Allena Pharmaceuticals

For every potential investor in Allena, whether a beginner or expert, Allena Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allena Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allena. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allena Pharmaceuticals' price trends.

Allena Pharmaceuticals Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allena Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allena Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allena Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Clearwater Paper CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allena Pharmaceuticals Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allena Pharmaceuticals' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allena Pharmaceuticals' current price.

Allena Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators

The analysis of Allena Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allena Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Allena Pharmaceuticals stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Allena Pharmaceuticals in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Allena Pharmaceuticals' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Allena Pharmaceuticals options trading.

Pair Trading with Allena Pharmaceuticals

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Allena Pharmaceuticals position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Allena Pharmaceuticals will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Allena Pharmaceuticals

+0.75INTCIntel Corp TrendingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Allena Pharmaceuticals could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Allena Pharmaceuticals when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Allena Pharmaceuticals - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Allena Pharmaceuticals to buy it.
The correlation of Allena Pharmaceuticals is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Allena Pharmaceuticals moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Allena Pharmaceuticals moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Allena Pharmaceuticals can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allena Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. You can also try ETF Directory module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.

Other Tools for Allena Stock

When running Allena Pharmaceuticals price analysis, check to measure Allena Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allena Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Allena Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allena Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allena Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allena Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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