Ally Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ALLY
 Stock
  

USD 24.83  0.17  0.68%   

Ally Financial Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ally Financial historical stock prices and determine the direction of Ally Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Ally Financial historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Ally Financial naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Ally Financial systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ally Financial fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ally Financial to cross-verify your projections.
  
Ally Financial PPandE Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Ally Financial reported PPandE Turnover of 11.19 in 2021. Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to rise to 1.21 in 2022, whereas Accrued Expenses Turnover is likely to drop 12.53 in 2022. . Ally Financial Weighted Average Shares is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Ally Financial reported Weighted Average Shares of 362.58 Million in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to rise to about 440.3 M in 2022, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (2 B) in 2022.
Most investors in Ally Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ally Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ally Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Ally Financial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Ally Financial value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Ally Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ally Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 23.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ally Financial Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ally Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ally Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ally FinancialAlly Financial Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ally Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ally Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ally Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.24 and 27.15, respectively. We have considered Ally Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 24.83
23.70
Expected Value
27.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ally Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ally Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.2058
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8278
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0296
SAESum of the absolute errors50.4938
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Ally Financial. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Ally Financial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Ally Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ally Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ally Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ally Financial in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
21.2624.7228.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
22.4334.2837.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
24.0926.3428.60
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
53.0066.3681.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ally Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ally Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ally Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ally Financial.

Other Forecasting Options for Ally Financial

For every potential investor in Ally Financial, whether a beginner or expert, Ally Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ally Financial Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ally Financial. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ally Financial's price trends.

Ally Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ally Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ally Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ally Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Cisco SystemsExxon Mobil CorpHP IncProcter GambleIntelDupont De NemoursATT IncChevron CorpAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health Trend
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ally Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ally Financial's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ally Financial's current price.

Ally Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ally Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ally Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ally Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ally Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ally Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ally Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ally Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Ally Financial stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Ally Financial without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Ally Financial

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ally Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ally Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Ally Financial

+0.75CSCredit Suisse Group Aggressive PushPairCorr

Moving against Ally Financial

-0.75FHNFirst Horizon National Sell-off TrendPairCorr
-0.71NWFLNorwood Financial Corp Normal TradingPairCorr
-0.64PWODPenns Woods Bancorp Normal TradingPairCorr
-0.59CCBCoastal Financial Corp Normal TradingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ally Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ally Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ally Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ally Financial to buy it.
The correlation of Ally Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ally Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ally Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ally Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ally Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

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When running Ally Financial price analysis, check to measure Ally Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ally Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Ally Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ally Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ally Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ally Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ally Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ally Financial. If investors know Ally Financial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ally Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.54) 
Market Capitalization
7.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.14) 
Return On Assets
0.0114
Return On Equity
0.141
The market value of Ally Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ally Financial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ally Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ally Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ally Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ally Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ally Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ally Financial value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ally Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.