Alignment Healthcare Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

ALHC
 Stock
  

USD 11.84  0.31  2.55%   

Alignment Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alignment Healthcare historical stock prices and determine the direction of Alignment Healthcare's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Alignment Healthcare historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alignment Healthcare to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Alignment Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alignment Healthcare's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Alignment Healthcare's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Alignment Healthcare stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alignment Healthcare's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alignment Healthcare's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alignment Healthcare is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alignment. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Alignment Healthcare cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alignment Healthcare's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alignment Healthcare's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Alignment Healthcare polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Alignment Healthcare as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Alignment Healthcare Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Alignment Healthcare on the next trading day is expected to be 10.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 0.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.39.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alignment Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alignment Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alignment Healthcare Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Alignment HealthcareAlignment Healthcare Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Alignment Healthcare Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alignment Healthcare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alignment Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.74 and 14.81, respectively. We have considered Alignment Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 11.84
10.78
Expected Value
14.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alignment Healthcare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alignment Healthcare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7488
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6948
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.047
SAESum of the absolute errors42.3854
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Alignment Healthcare historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Alignment Healthcare

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alignment Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alignment Healthcare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alignment Healthcare in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
7.7711.8115.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.9314.9719.01
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
18.0022.8628.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alignment Healthcare. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alignment Healthcare's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alignment Healthcare's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alignment Healthcare.

Other Forecasting Options for Alignment Healthcare

For every potential investor in Alignment, whether a beginner or expert, Alignment Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alignment Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alignment. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alignment Healthcare's price trends.

Alignment Healthcare Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alignment Healthcare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alignment Healthcare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alignment Healthcare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alignment Healthcare Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alignment Healthcare's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alignment Healthcare's current price.

Alignment Healthcare Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alignment Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alignment Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Alignment Healthcare stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alignment Healthcare in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alignment Healthcare's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alignment Healthcare options trading.

Pair Trading with Alignment Healthcare

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alignment Healthcare position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alignment Healthcare will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Alignment Healthcare

+0.66DISWalt Disney Fiscal Year End 9th of November 2022 PairCorr
+0.63JPMJP Morgan Chase Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alignment Healthcare could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alignment Healthcare when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alignment Healthcare - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alignment Healthcare to buy it.
The correlation of Alignment Healthcare is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alignment Healthcare moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alignment Healthcare moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alignment Healthcare can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alignment Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alignment Healthcare information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alignment Healthcare's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

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When running Alignment Healthcare price analysis, check to measure Alignment Healthcare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alignment Healthcare is operating at the current time. Most of Alignment Healthcare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alignment Healthcare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alignment Healthcare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alignment Healthcare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alignment Healthcare's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alignment Healthcare. If investors know Alignment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alignment Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alignment Healthcare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alignment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alignment Healthcare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alignment Healthcare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alignment Healthcare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alignment Healthcare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alignment Healthcare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alignment Healthcare value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alignment Healthcare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.