Alignment Healthcare Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ALHC
 Stock
  

USD 11.97  0.09  0.75%   

Alignment Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alignment Healthcare historical stock prices and determine the direction of Alignment Healthcare LLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Alignment Healthcare historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alignment Healthcare to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Alignment Healthcare cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alignment Healthcare's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alignment Healthcare's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Alignment Healthcare works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Alignment Healthcare Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alignment Healthcare LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 11.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alignment Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alignment Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alignment Healthcare Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Alignment HealthcareAlignment Healthcare Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Alignment Healthcare Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alignment Healthcare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alignment Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.02 and 15.91, respectively. We have considered Alignment Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 11.97
11.97
Expected Value
15.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alignment Healthcare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alignment Healthcare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0813
MADMean absolute deviation0.3692
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0297
SAESum of the absolute errors21.7824
When Alignment Healthcare LLC prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Alignment Healthcare LLC trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Alignment Healthcare observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Alignment Healthcare

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alignment Healthcare LLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alignment Healthcare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alignment Healthcare in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.1312.0716.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.4114.3518.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
12.0112.1112.21
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
18.0022.8628.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alignment Healthcare. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alignment Healthcare's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alignment Healthcare's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alignment Healthcare LLC.

Other Forecasting Options for Alignment Healthcare

For every potential investor in Alignment, whether a beginner or expert, Alignment Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alignment Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alignment. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alignment Healthcare's price trends.

Alignment Healthcare Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alignment Healthcare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alignment Healthcare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alignment Healthcare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Lancaster ColonyKraft HeinzJernimo Martins SGPSCampbell SoupGeneral MillsAjinomotoTreehouse FoodsAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USA
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alignment Healthcare LLC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alignment Healthcare's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alignment Healthcare's current price.

Alignment Healthcare Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alignment Healthcare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alignment Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alignment Healthcare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alignment Healthcare LLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alignment Healthcare Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alignment Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alignment Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Alignment Healthcare stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Alignment Healthcare without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Alignment Healthcare

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alignment Healthcare position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alignment Healthcare will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Alignment Healthcare

+0.71VZVerizon Communications Sell-off TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alignment Healthcare could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alignment Healthcare when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alignment Healthcare - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alignment Healthcare LLC to buy it.
The correlation of Alignment Healthcare is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alignment Healthcare moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alignment Healthcare LLC moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alignment Healthcare can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alignment Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alignment Healthcare LLC information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alignment Healthcare's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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Is Alignment Healthcare's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alignment Healthcare. If investors know Alignment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alignment Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alignment Healthcare LLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alignment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alignment Healthcare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alignment Healthcare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alignment Healthcare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alignment Healthcare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alignment Healthcare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alignment Healthcare value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alignment Healthcare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.