Alignment Healthcare Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ALHC
 Stock
  

USD 12.06  0.04  0.33%   

Alignment Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alignment Healthcare historical stock prices and determine the direction of Alignment Healthcare LLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Alignment Healthcare historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alignment Healthcare to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Alignment Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alignment Healthcare's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Alignment Healthcare's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Alignment Healthcare stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alignment Healthcare's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alignment Healthcare's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alignment Healthcare is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alignment. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Alignment Healthcare cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alignment Healthcare's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alignment Healthcare's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Alignment Healthcare is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Alignment Healthcare LLC value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Alignment Healthcare Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alignment Healthcare LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 12.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alignment Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alignment Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alignment Healthcare Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Alignment HealthcareAlignment Healthcare Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Alignment Healthcare Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alignment Healthcare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alignment Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.90 and 16.83, respectively. We have considered Alignment Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 12.06
12.86
Expected Value
16.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alignment Healthcare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alignment Healthcare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.0915
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.526
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0421
SAESum of the absolute errors32.0884
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Alignment Healthcare LLC. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Alignment Healthcare. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Alignment Healthcare

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alignment Healthcare LLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alignment Healthcare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alignment Healthcare in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.0311.9915.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.7714.7318.69
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
18.0022.8628.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.25-1.19-1.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alignment Healthcare. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alignment Healthcare's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alignment Healthcare's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alignment Healthcare LLC.

Other Forecasting Options for Alignment Healthcare

For every potential investor in Alignment, whether a beginner or expert, Alignment Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alignment Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alignment. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alignment Healthcare's price trends.

Alignment Healthcare Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alignment Healthcare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alignment Healthcare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alignment Healthcare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Merck CompanyJohnson JohnsonBondbloxx ETF TrustFidelity MSCI EnergyAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-Term
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alignment Healthcare LLC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alignment Healthcare's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alignment Healthcare's current price.

Alignment Healthcare Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alignment Healthcare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alignment Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alignment Healthcare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alignment Healthcare LLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alignment Healthcare Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alignment Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alignment Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Alignment Healthcare stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Alignment Healthcare Investors Sentiment

The influence of Alignment Healthcare's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Alignment. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Alignment Healthcare's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Alignment. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alignment can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alignment Healthcare LLC. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Alignment Healthcare's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Alignment Healthcare's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Alignment Healthcare's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Alignment Healthcare.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alignment Healthcare in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alignment Healthcare's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alignment Healthcare options trading.

Pair Trading with Alignment Healthcare

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alignment Healthcare position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alignment Healthcare will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Alignment Healthcare

+0.75DISWalt Disney Sell-off TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alignment Healthcare could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alignment Healthcare when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alignment Healthcare - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alignment Healthcare LLC to buy it.
The correlation of Alignment Healthcare is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alignment Healthcare moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alignment Healthcare LLC moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alignment Healthcare can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alignment Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alignment Healthcare LLC information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alignment Healthcare's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Alignment Stock analysis

When running Alignment Healthcare LLC price analysis, check to measure Alignment Healthcare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alignment Healthcare is operating at the current time. Most of Alignment Healthcare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alignment Healthcare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alignment Healthcare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alignment Healthcare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alignment Healthcare's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alignment Healthcare. If investors know Alignment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alignment Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
2.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.228
Return On Assets
(0.10) 
Return On Equity
(0.47) 
The market value of Alignment Healthcare LLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alignment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alignment Healthcare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alignment Healthcare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alignment Healthcare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alignment Healthcare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alignment Healthcare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alignment Healthcare value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alignment Healthcare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.