# Alger Funds Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ALEAX | Fund | ## USD 7.77 0.06 0.77% |

Alger Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alger Funds historical stock prices and determine the direction of The Alger Funds's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Alger Funds historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.

Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alger Funds to cross-verify your projections. Alger |

Most investors in Alger Funds cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alger Funds' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alger Funds' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Alger Funds works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. ## Alger Funds Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Alger Funds on the next trading day is expected to be 7.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02226, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alger Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alger Funds' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

## Alger Funds Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Alger Funds | Alger Funds Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |

## Alger Funds Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alger Funds' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alger Funds' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.83 and 9.75, respectively. We have considered Alger Funds' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

## Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alger Funds mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alger Funds mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |

Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0167 |

MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1141 |

MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0157 |

SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.7327 |

## Predictive Modules for Alger Funds

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alger Funds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alger Funds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alger Funds in the context of predictive analytics.

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alger Funds. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alger Funds' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alger Funds' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alger Funds.

## Other Forecasting Options for Alger Funds

For every potential investor in Alger, whether a beginner or expert, Alger Funds' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alger Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alger. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alger Funds' price trends.## Alger Funds Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alger Funds mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alger Funds could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alger Funds by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Risk & Return | Correlation |

## Alger Funds Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alger Funds' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alger Funds' current price.Cycle Indicators | ||

Math Operators | ||

Math Transform | ||

Momentum Indicators | ||

Overlap Studies | ||

Pattern Recognition | ||

Price Transform | ||

Statistic Functions | ||

Volatility Indicators | ||

Volume Indicators |

## Alger Funds Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alger Funds' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alger Funds' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Alger Funds stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||

Semi Deviation | 1.61 | |||

Standard Deviation | 1.94 | |||

Variance | 3.76 | |||

Downside Variance | 3.02 | |||

Semi Variance | 2.59 | |||

Expected Short fall | (1.77) |

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

## Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Alger Funds without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.## Did you try this?

### Run Global Markets Map Now

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## Pair Trading with Alger Funds

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alger Funds position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alger Funds will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.### Moving together with Alger Funds

+ | 0.96 | VFINX | VANGUARD 500 INDEX | Low Volatility | PairCorr | ||

+ | 0.96 | VFFSX | VANGUARD 500 INDEX | Low Volatility | PairCorr | ||

+ | 0.96 | VFIAX | VANGUARD 500 INDEX | Low Volatility | PairCorr | ||

+ | 0.89 | MGIBX | MFS INTERNATIONAL VALUE | Steady Growth | PairCorr |

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alger Funds could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alger Funds when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alger Funds - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling The Alger Funds to buy it.

The correlation of Alger Funds is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alger Funds moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alger Funds moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alger Funds can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alger Funds to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alger Funds information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alger Funds' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

## Complementary Tools for Alger Mutual Fund analysis

When running Alger Funds price analysis, check to measure Alger Funds' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alger Funds is operating at the current time. Most of Alger Funds' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alger Funds' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alger Funds' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alger Funds to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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