Akamai Technologies Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

AKAM
 Stock
  

USD 93.79  1.41  1.48%   

Akamai Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Akamai Technologies historical stock prices and determine the direction of Akamai Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Akamai Technologies historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Akamai Technologies naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Akamai Technologies systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Akamai Technologies fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Akamai Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
  
Akamai Technologies Asset Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Asset Turnover is estimated at 0.52. Akamai Technologies Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Weighted Average Shares is estimated at 185.75 Million. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 189.4 M this year, although the value of Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares will most likely fall to (474.8 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Akamai Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Akamai Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Akamai Technologies' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Akamai Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Akamai Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Akamai Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Akamai Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Akamai. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Akamai Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Akamai Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Akamai Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Akamai Technologies - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Akamai Technologies prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Akamai Technologies price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Akamai Technologies.

Akamai Technologies Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Akamai Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 94.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51, mean absolute percentage error of 3.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Akamai Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Akamai Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Akamai Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern

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Akamai Technologies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Akamai Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Akamai Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 92.01 and 96.13, respectively. We have considered Akamai Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 93.79
94.07
Expected Value
96.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Akamai Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Akamai Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1739
MADMean absolute deviation1.5139
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0175
SAESum of the absolute errors89.323
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Akamai Technologies observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Akamai Technologies observations.

Predictive Modules for Akamai Technologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Akamai Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Akamai Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Akamai Technologies in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
91.5693.6295.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
84.41109.48111.54
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
120.00134.54183.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (8)
LowProjected EPSHigh
4.544.574.61
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Akamai Technologies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Akamai Technologies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Akamai Technologies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Akamai Technologies.

Other Forecasting Options for Akamai Technologies

For every potential investor in Akamai, whether a beginner or expert, Akamai Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Akamai Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Akamai. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Akamai Technologies' price trends.

Akamai Technologies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Akamai Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Akamai Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Akamai Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Anheuser Busch InbevEtsy IncJPMorgan ChaseLinde PLCJohnson JohnsonAnheuser-Busch InBev SANVAmerican ExpressHome DepotAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health Trend
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Akamai Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Akamai Technologies' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Akamai Technologies' current price.

Akamai Technologies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Akamai Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Akamai Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Akamai Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Akamai Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Akamai Technologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Akamai Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Akamai Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Akamai Technologies stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Akamai Technologies Investors Sentiment

The influence of Akamai Technologies' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Akamai. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Akamai Technologies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Akamai. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Akamai can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Akamai Technologies. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Akamai Technologies' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Akamai Technologies' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Akamai Technologies' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Akamai Technologies.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Akamai Technologies in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Akamai Technologies' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Akamai Technologies options trading.

Pair Trading with Akamai Technologies

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Akamai Technologies position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Akamai Technologies will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Akamai Technologies

+0.63NOWServiceNow Downward RallyPairCorr
+0.78ADBEAdobe Systems Incorp Fiscal Year End 15th of December 2022 PairCorr
+0.75SNPSSynopsys Downward RallyPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Akamai Technologies could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Akamai Technologies when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Akamai Technologies - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Akamai Technologies to buy it.
The correlation of Akamai Technologies is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Akamai Technologies moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Akamai Technologies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Akamai Technologies can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Akamai Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Akamai Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Akamai Technologies' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fund Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.

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When running Akamai Technologies price analysis, check to measure Akamai Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Akamai Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Akamai Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Akamai Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Akamai Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Akamai Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Akamai Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Akamai Technologies. If investors know Akamai will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Akamai Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Akamai Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Akamai that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Akamai Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Akamai Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Akamai Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Akamai Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Akamai Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Akamai Technologies value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Akamai Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.