AAR Corp Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AIR
 Stock
  

USD 46.41  0.22  0.48%   

AAR Corp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AAR Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of AAR Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of AAR Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although AAR Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of AAR Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of AAR Corp fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAR Corp to cross-verify your projections.
  
AAR Corp PPandE Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. AAR Corp reported last year PPandE Turnover of 15.85. As of 12/08/2022, Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to 3.37, while Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to drop 33.99. . AAR Corp Weighted Average Shares is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. AAR Corp reported last year Weighted Average Shares of 35.6 Million. As of 12/08/2022, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to grow to about 40.9 M, while Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (27.6 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 AAR Corp Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AAR Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest AAR Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies AAR Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AAR Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to AAR Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AAR Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AAR Corp. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in AAR Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the AAR Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets AAR Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
AAR Corp simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for AAR Corp are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as AAR Corp prices get older.

AAR Corp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AAR Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 46.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AAR Corp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AAR Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

AAR Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

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AAR Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting AAR Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AAR Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.16 and 48.66, respectively. We have considered AAR Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 46.41
46.41
Expected Value
48.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AAR Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AAR Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.8682
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0843
MADMean absolute deviation0.6708
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0162
SAESum of the absolute errors40.92
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting AAR Corp forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent AAR Corp observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for AAR Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AAR Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of AAR Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of AAR Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
44.2346.4848.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
45.4747.7249.97
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
42.8845.4848.07
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0049.5053.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AAR Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AAR Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AAR Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in AAR Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for AAR Corp

For every potential investor in AAR Corp, whether a beginner or expert, AAR Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AAR Corp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AAR Corp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AAR Corp's price trends.

AAR Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AAR Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AAR Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AAR Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Exxon Mobil CorpMerck CompanyJPMorgan ChaseWalmartInternational BusinessCoca-ColaPfizer IncCaterpillarWalt DisneyAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group Limited
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AAR Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AAR Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AAR Corp's current price.

AAR Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of AAR Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AAR Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting AAR Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in AAR Corp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with AAR Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AAR Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AAR Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with AAR Corp

+0.83AALAmerican Airlines Downward RallyPairCorr
+0.94JPMJPMorgan Chase Sell-off TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to AAR Corp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AAR Corp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AAR Corp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AAR Corp to buy it.
The correlation of AAR Corp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AAR Corp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AAR Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AAR Corp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAR Corp to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

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Is AAR Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AAR Corp. If investors know AAR Corp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AAR Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.983
Market Capitalization
1.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.019) 
Return On Assets
0.051
Return On Equity
8.7717
The market value of AAR Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AAR Corp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AAR Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AAR Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AAR Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AAR Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AAR Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AAR Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AAR Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.