AAR Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AIR
 Stock
  

USD 35.31  2.71  7.13%   

AAR Corp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AAR Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of AAR Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of AAR Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAR Corp to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 AAR Corp Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AAR Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest AAR Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies AAR Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AAR Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to AAR Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AAR Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AAR Corp. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in AAR Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the AAR Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets AAR Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for AAR Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of AAR Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

AAR Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of AAR Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 34.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76, mean absolute percentage error of 0.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.06.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AAR Corp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AAR Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

AAR Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest AAR CorpAAR Corp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

AAR Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting AAR Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AAR Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.54 and 36.98, respectively. We have considered AAR Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 35.31
34.76
Expected Value
36.98
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AAR Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AAR Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.8389
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.759
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0177
SAESum of the absolute errors47.0556
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of AAR Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict AAR Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for AAR Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AAR Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of AAR Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of AAR Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
33.3635.5537.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
31.7844.0146.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
34.1238.1342.14
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0049.5053.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AAR Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AAR Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AAR Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in AAR Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for AAR Corp

For every potential investor in AAR Corp, whether a beginner or expert, AAR Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AAR Corp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AAR Corp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AAR Corp's price trends.

AAR Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AAR Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AAR Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AAR Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Sigma Lithium CorpAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AAR Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AAR Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AAR Corp's current price.

AAR Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of AAR Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AAR Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting AAR Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards AAR Corp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, AAR Corp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from AAR Corp options trading.

Pair Trading with AAR Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AAR Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AAR Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with AAR Corp

+0.63DISWalt Disney Fiscal Year End 9th of November 2022 PairCorr
+0.67HPQHp Inc Fiscal Year End 22nd of November 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to AAR Corp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AAR Corp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AAR Corp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AAR Corp to buy it.
The correlation of AAR Corp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AAR Corp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AAR Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AAR Corp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAR Corp to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

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When running AAR Corp price analysis, check to measure AAR Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AAR Corp is operating at the current time. Most of AAR Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AAR Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AAR Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AAR Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AAR Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AAR Corp. If investors know AAR Corp will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AAR Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of AAR Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AAR Corp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AAR Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AAR Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AAR Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AAR Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AAR Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AAR Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AAR Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.