Invesco Government Money Market Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AGPXX
 Fund
  

USD 1.00  2.72  73.12%   

Invesco Money Market Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Invesco Government historical stock prices and determine the direction of Invesco Government Agency's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Invesco Government historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to fundamental analysis of Invesco Government to check your projections.
  
Most investors in Invesco Government cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Invesco Government's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Invesco Government's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Invesco Government simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Invesco Government Agency are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Invesco Government Agency prices get older.

Invesco Government Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Invesco Government Agency on the next trading day is expected to be 1.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.40.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Invesco Money Market Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Invesco Government's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Invesco Government Money Market Fund Forecast Pattern

Invesco Government Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Invesco Government's Money Market Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Invesco Government's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 28.97, respectively. We have considered Invesco Government's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 1.00
1.21
Expected Value
28.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Invesco Government money market fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Invesco Government money market fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.8267
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0238
MADMean absolute deviation0.1567
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1123
SAESum of the absolute errors9.3993
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Invesco Government Agency forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Invesco Government observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Invesco Government

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Invesco Government Agency. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Invesco Government's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Invesco Government in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.193.8631.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.163.1431.13
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
2.513.414.32
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Invesco Government. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Invesco Government's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Invesco Government's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Invesco Government Agency.

Other Forecasting Options for Invesco Government

For every potential investor in Invesco, whether a beginner or expert, Invesco Government's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Invesco Money Market Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Invesco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Invesco Government's price trends.

Invesco Government Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Invesco Government money market fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Invesco Government could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Invesco Government by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Vanguard Total StockVanguard Total StockVanguard Total StockVanguard Index TrustVanguard Index TrustVanguard Index TrustVanguard 500 IndexVanguard 500 IndexVanguard Total InterVanguard Total InterAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Invesco Government Agency Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Invesco Government's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Invesco Government's current price.

Invesco Government Risk Indicators

The analysis of Invesco Government's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Invesco Government's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Invesco Government stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Invesco Government without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Invesco Government

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Invesco Government position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Invesco Government will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Invesco Government could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Invesco Government when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Invesco Government - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Invesco Government Agency to buy it.
The correlation of Invesco Government is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Invesco Government moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Invesco Government Agency moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Invesco Government can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to fundamental analysis of Invesco Government to check your projections. You can also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Invesco Government's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Invesco Government value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Invesco Government's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.