Global Bond Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

AGBGX
 Fund
  

USD 8.75  0.14  1.57%   

Global Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Global Bond historical stock prices and determine the direction of Global Bond Fund's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Global Bond historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Bond to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Global Bond cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Global Bond's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Global Bond's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Global Bond is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Global Bond Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Global Bond Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Global Bond Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 8.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.024812, mean absolute percentage error of 0.001017, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Global Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Global Bond's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Global Bond Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Global Bond Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Global Bond's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Global Bond's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.30 and 9.08, respectively. We have considered Global Bond's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 8.75
8.69
Expected Value
9.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Global Bond mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Global Bond mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.22
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0248
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0027
SAESum of the absolute errors1.5136
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Global Bond Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Global Bond. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Global Bond

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Global Bond Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Global Bond's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Global Bond in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.368.759.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.448.839.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
8.668.849.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Global Bond. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Global Bond's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Global Bond's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Global Bond Fund.

Other Forecasting Options for Global Bond

For every potential investor in Global, whether a beginner or expert, Global Bond's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Global Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Global. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Global Bond's price trends.

Global Bond Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Global Bond mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Global Bond could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Global Bond by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Vanguard Total InterAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Global Bond Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Global Bond's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Global Bond's current price.

Global Bond Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Global Bond mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Global Bond shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Global Bond mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Global Bond Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Global Bond Risk Indicators

The analysis of Global Bond's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Global Bond's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Global Bond stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Global Bond without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Global Bond

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Global Bond position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Global Bond will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Global Bond

+0.74HPQHp Inc Fiscal Year End 22nd of November 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Global Bond could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Global Bond when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Global Bond - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Global Bond Fund to buy it.
The correlation of Global Bond is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Global Bond moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Global Bond Fund moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Global Bond can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Bond to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Global Bond Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Global Bond's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Global Bond's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Global Bond value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Global Bond's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.