Agnico Eagle Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

AEM
 Stock
  

USD 52.29  1.92  3.81%   

Agnico Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Agnico Eagle historical stock prices and determine the direction of Agnico Eagle Mines's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Agnico Eagle historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Agnico Eagle naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Agnico Eagle Mines systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agnico Eagle fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agnico Eagle to cross-verify your projections.
  
The value of Asset Turnover is estimated to pull down to 0.34. Weighted Average Shares is expected to hike to about 249.6 M this year. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to hike to about 257.7 M this year.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Agnico Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Agnico Eagle's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Agnico Eagle's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Agnico Eagle stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Agnico Eagle's open interest, investors have to compare it to Agnico Eagle's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Agnico Eagle is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Agnico. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Agnico Eagle cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Agnico Eagle's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Agnico Eagle's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Agnico Eagle Mines is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Agnico Eagle 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Agnico Eagle Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 50.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.49, mean absolute percentage error of 3.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 84.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agnico Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agnico Eagle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Agnico Eagle Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Agnico EagleAgnico Eagle Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Agnico Eagle Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Agnico Eagle's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agnico Eagle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.10 and 53.38, respectively. We have considered Agnico Eagle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 52.29
50.24
Expected Value
53.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agnico Eagle stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agnico Eagle stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.9538
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.3004
MADMean absolute deviation1.4854
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0339
SAESum of the absolute errors84.665
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Agnico Eagle. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Agnico Eagle Mines and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Agnico Eagle

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agnico Eagle Mines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agnico Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Agnico Eagle in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
49.2752.4155.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
47.0163.3566.49
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
47.7749.9652.15
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
63.0075.00110.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Agnico Eagle. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Agnico Eagle's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Agnico Eagle's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Agnico Eagle Mines.

Other Forecasting Options for Agnico Eagle

For every potential investor in Agnico, whether a beginner or expert, Agnico Eagle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agnico Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agnico. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agnico Eagle's price trends.

Agnico Eagle Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agnico Eagle stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agnico Eagle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agnico Eagle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Walt DisneyZIM Integrated ShippingAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USAAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Agnico Eagle Mines Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Agnico Eagle's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Agnico Eagle's current price.

Agnico Eagle Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agnico Eagle stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agnico Eagle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agnico Eagle stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agnico Eagle Mines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Agnico Eagle Risk Indicators

The analysis of Agnico Eagle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agnico Eagle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Agnico Eagle stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Agnico Eagle Investors Sentiment

The influence of Agnico Eagle's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Agnico. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Agnico Eagle's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Agnico. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Agnico can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Agnico Eagle Mines. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Agnico Eagle's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Agnico Eagle's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Agnico Eagle's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Agnico Eagle.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Agnico Eagle in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Agnico Eagle's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Agnico Eagle options trading.

Pair Trading with Agnico Eagle

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Agnico Eagle position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Agnico Eagle will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Agnico Eagle

+0.8JPMJPMorgan Chase Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Agnico Eagle could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Agnico Eagle when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Agnico Eagle - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Agnico Eagle Mines to buy it.
The correlation of Agnico Eagle is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Agnico Eagle moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Agnico Eagle Mines moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Agnico Eagle can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agnico Eagle to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Agnico Eagle Mines information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Agnico Eagle's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

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Is Agnico Eagle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agnico Eagle. If investors know Agnico will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agnico Eagle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.64) 
Market Capitalization
22.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.47
Return On Assets
0.0515
Return On Equity
5.16
The market value of Agnico Eagle Mines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agnico that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agnico Eagle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agnico Eagle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agnico Eagle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agnico Eagle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agnico Eagle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Agnico Eagle value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agnico Eagle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.