Unknown Indicator

A naive forecasting model for equity instruments is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of price value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of price. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict equity instruments. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Naive Prediction In A Nutshell

When using the naïve prediction, it is good for only a time series. Knowing how to compare and use data is important because there are hundreds upon hundreds of ways to analyze data and you have to be sure you are effectively analyzing the data.

If you find yourself looking at data, using naïve prediction is typically used as the benchmark predication, and takes previous data and does not alter it, allowing you to use other prediction models against it to see how they are doing.

Closer Look at Naive Prediction

Another aspect to look using naïve prediction is there could be seasonality in the market you are examining and this approach may not be the best to use. There are other factors to keep in mind such as drift and a shift in the average.

These are in depth formulas that can be manipulated and changed, but it is important to understand what goes into the equation because with that you can narrow in on the specific data that may be altering the results. There are many different resources to use on the Internet so be sure to fully understand what is happening before using this in your current setup. Join an investing group and see if other people are using this as you may find it is not widely used due to a various of reasons. Also, check out Macroaxis as there are many useful tools that can help expand your current trading setup.

Use Investing Themes to Complement your positions

You can quickly originate your optimal portfoio using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Books Thematic Idea Now

Books
Books Theme
Companies involved in publishing of books, newspapers, periodicals and other mass publications. The Books theme has 40 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Books Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
View All  Next Launch
Check out your portfolio center. Note that this page's information should be used as a complementary analysis to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

Other Complementary Tools

Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Go
Fund Screener
Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges
Go
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Go
Commodity Channel Index
Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Go
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Go
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Go
Companies Directory
Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Go
Focused Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Go