Aci Worldwide Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ACIW
 Stock
  

USD 25.79  0.01  0.0388%   

Aci Worldwide Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aci Worldwide historical stock prices and determine the direction of Aci Worldwide's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Aci Worldwide historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Aci Worldwide naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Aci Worldwide systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aci Worldwide fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aci Worldwide to cross-verify your projections.
  
Aci Worldwide PPandE Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Aci Worldwide reported PPandE Turnover of 21.45 in 2021. Receivables Turnover is likely to climb to 4.50 in 2022, whereas Accrued Expenses Turnover is likely to drop 21.61 in 2022. . Aci Worldwide Weighted Average Shares is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Aci Worldwide reported Weighted Average Shares of 117.41 Million in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to climb to about 130.3 M in 2022, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (112.8 M) in 2022.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Aci Worldwide Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Aci Worldwide's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Aci Worldwide's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Aci Worldwide stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Aci Worldwide's open interest, investors have to compare it to Aci Worldwide's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Aci Worldwide is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Aci Worldwide. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Aci Worldwide cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Aci Worldwide's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Aci Worldwide's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Aci Worldwide is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Aci Worldwide value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Aci Worldwide Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aci Worldwide on the next trading day is expected to be 25.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.77.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aci Worldwide Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aci Worldwide's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aci Worldwide Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aci WorldwideAci Worldwide Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Aci Worldwide Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aci Worldwide's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aci Worldwide's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.55 and 27.86, respectively. We have considered Aci Worldwide's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 25.79
25.71
Expected Value
27.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aci Worldwide stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aci Worldwide stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.3004
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5209
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0195
SAESum of the absolute errors31.7741
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Aci Worldwide. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Aci Worldwide. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Aci Worldwide

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aci Worldwide. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aci Worldwide's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Aci Worldwide in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
23.4525.6127.77
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
23.0529.9232.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
24.9727.0029.04
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
42.0043.5045.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aci Worldwide. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aci Worldwide's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aci Worldwide's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Aci Worldwide.

Other Forecasting Options for Aci Worldwide

For every potential investor in Aci Worldwide, whether a beginner or expert, Aci Worldwide's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aci Worldwide Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aci Worldwide. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aci Worldwide's price trends.

Aci Worldwide Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aci Worldwide stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aci Worldwide could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aci Worldwide by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Johnson JohnsonBlock IncVmware IncAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INCUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondLIFE STORAGE INC
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aci Worldwide Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aci Worldwide's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aci Worldwide's current price.

Aci Worldwide Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aci Worldwide stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aci Worldwide shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aci Worldwide stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aci Worldwide entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aci Worldwide Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aci Worldwide's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aci Worldwide's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Aci Worldwide stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Aci Worldwide Investors Sentiment

The influence of Aci Worldwide's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Aci Worldwide. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Aci Worldwide's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Aci Worldwide. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aci Worldwide can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aci Worldwide. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Aci Worldwide's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Aci Worldwide's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Aci Worldwide's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Aci Worldwide.

Aci Worldwide Implied Volatility

    
  9.47  
Aci Worldwide's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aci Worldwide stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aci Worldwide's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aci Worldwide stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aci Worldwide's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aci Worldwide in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aci Worldwide's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aci Worldwide options trading.

Pair Trading with Aci Worldwide

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aci Worldwide position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aci Worldwide will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aci Worldwide could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aci Worldwide when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aci Worldwide - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aci Worldwide to buy it.
The correlation of Aci Worldwide is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aci Worldwide moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aci Worldwide moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aci Worldwide can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aci Worldwide to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Aci Worldwide information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aci Worldwide's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for Aci Worldwide Stock analysis

When running Aci Worldwide price analysis, check to measure Aci Worldwide's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aci Worldwide is operating at the current time. Most of Aci Worldwide's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aci Worldwide's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aci Worldwide's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aci Worldwide to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aci Worldwide's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aci Worldwide. If investors know Aci Worldwide will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aci Worldwide listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
1.33
Market Capitalization
B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.13
Return On Assets
0.0494
Return On Equity
0.13
The market value of Aci Worldwide is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aci Worldwide that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aci Worldwide's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aci Worldwide's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aci Worldwide's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aci Worldwide's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aci Worldwide's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aci Worldwide value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aci Worldwide's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.