Albertsons Companies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ACI
 Stock
  

USD 20.84  0.11  0.53%   

Albertsons Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Albertsons Companies historical stock prices and determine the direction of Albertsons Companies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Albertsons Companies historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Albertsons Companies naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Albertsons Companies systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Albertsons Companies fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Albertsons Companies to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 2.69. Albertsons Companies Weighted Average Shares is most likely to decrease significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Weighted Average Shares was reported at 469.6 Million. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 555.6 M, while Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is projected to decrease to (1.7 B).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Albertsons Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Albertsons Companies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Albertsons Companies' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Albertsons Companies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Albertsons Companies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Albertsons Companies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Albertsons Companies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Albertsons. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Albertsons Companies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Albertsons Companies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Albertsons Companies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Albertsons Companies is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Albertsons Companies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Albertsons Companies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Albertsons Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 21.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Albertsons Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Albertsons Companies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Albertsons Companies Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Albertsons CompaniesAlbertsons Companies Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Albertsons Companies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Albertsons Companies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Albertsons Companies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.15 and 24.19, respectively. We have considered Albertsons Companies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 20.84
21.67
Expected Value
24.19
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Albertsons Companies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Albertsons Companies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.3282
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2923
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0144
SAESum of the absolute errors17.8312
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Albertsons Companies. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Albertsons Companies. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Albertsons Companies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Albertsons Companies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Albertsons Companies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Albertsons Companies in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
17.8720.3922.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
18.7226.0928.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
20.3720.7321.09
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
19.0031.7740.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Albertsons Companies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Albertsons Companies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Albertsons Companies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Albertsons Companies.

Other Forecasting Options for Albertsons Companies

For every potential investor in Albertsons, whether a beginner or expert, Albertsons Companies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Albertsons Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Albertsons. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Albertsons Companies' price trends.

Albertsons Companies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Albertsons Companies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Albertsons Companies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Albertsons Companies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
JPMorgan ChaseAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USAAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLCVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil CorpSignature Bank
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Albertsons Companies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Albertsons Companies' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Albertsons Companies' current price.

Albertsons Companies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Albertsons Companies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Albertsons Companies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Albertsons Companies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Albertsons Companies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Albertsons Companies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Albertsons Companies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Albertsons Companies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Albertsons Companies stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Albertsons Companies Investors Sentiment

The influence of Albertsons Companies' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Albertsons. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Albertsons Companies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Albertsons. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Albertsons can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Albertsons Companies. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Albertsons Companies' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Albertsons Companies' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Albertsons Companies' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Albertsons Companies.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Albertsons Companies in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Albertsons Companies' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Albertsons Companies options trading.

Pair Trading with Albertsons Companies

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Albertsons Companies position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Albertsons Companies will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Albertsons Companies

+0.62ALCOAlico Inc Earnings Call  This WeekPairCorr
+0.7BGBunge Limited TrendingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Albertsons Companies could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Albertsons Companies when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Albertsons Companies - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Albertsons Companies to buy it.
The correlation of Albertsons Companies is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Albertsons Companies moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Albertsons Companies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Albertsons Companies can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Albertsons Companies to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Albertsons Companies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Albertsons Companies' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

Complementary Tools for Albertsons Stock analysis

When running Albertsons Companies price analysis, check to measure Albertsons Companies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Albertsons Companies is operating at the current time. Most of Albertsons Companies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Albertsons Companies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Albertsons Companies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Albertsons Companies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Albertsons Companies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Albertsons Companies. If investors know Albertsons will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Albertsons Companies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.15
Market Capitalization
11.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.086
Return On Assets
0.0574
Return On Equity
0.4
The market value of Albertsons Companies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Albertsons that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Albertsons Companies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Albertsons Companies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Albertsons Companies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Albertsons Companies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Albertsons Companies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Albertsons Companies value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Albertsons Companies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.