Focused Dynamic Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ACFGX
 Fund
  

USD 38.78  0.28  0.72%   

Focused Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Focused Dynamic historical stock prices and determine the direction of Focused Dynamic Growth's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Focused Dynamic historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Focused Dynamic to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Focused Dynamic cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Focused Dynamic's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Focused Dynamic's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Focused Dynamic works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Focused Dynamic Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Focused Dynamic Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 39.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Focused Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Focused Dynamic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Focused Dynamic Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Focused DynamicFocused Dynamic Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Focused Dynamic Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Focused Dynamic's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Focused Dynamic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.21 and 40.81, respectively. We have considered Focused Dynamic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 38.78
39.01
Expected Value
40.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Focused Dynamic mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Focused Dynamic mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0393
MADMean absolute deviation0.6139
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0144
SAESum of the absolute errors36.22
When Focused Dynamic Growth prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Focused Dynamic Growth trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Focused Dynamic observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Focused Dynamic

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Focused Dynamic Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Focused Dynamic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Focused Dynamic in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
36.9838.7840.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
36.2038.0039.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
39.6241.7043.79
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Focused Dynamic. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Focused Dynamic's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Focused Dynamic's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Focused Dynamic Growth.

Other Forecasting Options for Focused Dynamic

For every potential investor in Focused, whether a beginner or expert, Focused Dynamic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Focused Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Focused. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Focused Dynamic's price trends.

Focused Dynamic Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Focused Dynamic mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Focused Dynamic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Focused Dynamic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
JP Morgan ChaseAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondMaiden Holdings NorthSeagate Technology HldgsVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Focused Dynamic Growth Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Focused Dynamic's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Focused Dynamic's current price.

Focused Dynamic Risk Indicators

The analysis of Focused Dynamic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Focused Dynamic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Focused Dynamic stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Focused Dynamic without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Portfolio Holdings Now

   

Portfolio Holdings

Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
All  Next Launch Module

Pair Trading with Focused Dynamic

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Focused Dynamic position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Focused Dynamic will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Focused Dynamic

+0.72JPMJP Morgan Chase Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Focused Dynamic could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Focused Dynamic when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Focused Dynamic - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Focused Dynamic Growth to buy it.
The correlation of Focused Dynamic is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Focused Dynamic moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Focused Dynamic Growth moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Focused Dynamic can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Focused Dynamic to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Focused Dynamic Growth information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Focused Dynamic's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

Complementary Tools for Focused Mutual Fund analysis

When running Focused Dynamic Growth price analysis, check to measure Focused Dynamic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Focused Dynamic is operating at the current time. Most of Focused Dynamic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Focused Dynamic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Focused Dynamic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Focused Dynamic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Go
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Go
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Fund Screener
Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges
Go
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Go
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
ETF Directory
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world
Go
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Go
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
Go
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Go
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.
Go
Commodity Channel Index
Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
Go
Shere Portfolio
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Please note, there is a significant difference between Focused Dynamic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Focused Dynamic value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Focused Dynamic's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.